Airbus facing a tough battle ahead
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Airbus needs to study what happened to McDonnell Douglas during the 1990's. The MD-11 also had launch problems along with initial performance pitfalls. Although they eventually developed a great airplane they had lost a lot of credibility. Remember all the different variants they proposed during the 90's? Airlines stopped listening and instead bought Boeing/Airbus. Just get the 380 flying and win back the skeptics.
Yes, thank you for the reminder........smacDC-10 wrote:Airbus needs to study what happened to McDonnell Douglas during the 1990's. The MD-11 also had launch problems along with initial performance pitfalls. Although they eventually developed a great airplane they had lost a lot of credibility. Remember all the different variants they proposed during the 90's? Airlines stopped listening and instead bought Boeing/Airbus. Just get the 380 flying and win back the skeptics.
Oh dear, the gremlins struck!I believe the 747-8 proves that Boeing have some concerns over the A380.
They did after all abandon their previous stretched 747 studies, probably because it did not look so good against the newer technology of the A3XX as it was then.Possibly the same reason the re-worked A330+20 did not look all that great against the technology of the 787.
Remember at that time they cited a new survey showing a market for only 300 large airliners.
If this were so, and the A380 already has 159 plus options of that market, why have they gone ahead with the 747-8?
Ah, the power of statistics!
Cheers
Achace
I'm not a gremlin.......oh wait nevermindachace wrote:
I disagree, Boeing 747-8 is not even a direct competitor to the A380. What the 747-8 does is fill the gap between the A346/B777-300ER and the A380. IMO, 747-8 will temporary plane filling the gap between 350 to 420 passanger seats. I think this program will have a short life, and Boeing will replace the 747 :cry2: and B773ER, with another more fuel efficient, possibly twin engine jetliner in the next 10 years.I believe the 747-8 proves that Boeing have some concerns over the A380.
They did after all abandon their previous stretched 747 studies, probably because it did not look so good against the newer technology of the A3XX as it was then.Possibly the same reason the re-worked A330+20 did not look all that great against the technology of the 787.
Boeing did abandon studies for VLA because they did not see a market for a 555 plus seat Pax aircraft. When Boeing bought out McDonnell Douglas
, they quickly put the studies of the MD-12 under the rug and have basically forgotten about it. Even McDonnell Douglas executives, as you pointed out, didn't see a market for a VLA being bigger than just 400 planes, and rejected the offer made by Airbus to work on the VLA together.Upgrading current models has been done on almost every aircraft line currently in service. It's a, relatively, cheap way of increasing the customer base without starting from scratch. You also get shorter lead times before entering into service, so your customer won't wait too long, (and change his mind). Conditions in the market place can change so quickly that this time saving can mean the life or death of a product.
Look at all the versions of the 737, 777, 747, 320 and 330, (and a bunch more), that have sold very well.
Not all attempts will be successful. The 350 is a good example, but what they will probably/possibly get out of that is a much better 330. If they just went ahead and sold the 350 as a 330ng, they probably never would have had these credibilty issues with the aircraft, and saved everyone a ton of headaches....but that's another story.
Look at all the versions of the 737, 777, 747, 320 and 330, (and a bunch more), that have sold very well.
Not all attempts will be successful. The 350 is a good example, but what they will probably/possibly get out of that is a much better 330. If they just went ahead and sold the 350 as a 330ng, they probably never would have had these credibilty issues with the aircraft, and saved everyone a ton of headaches....but that's another story.
Upgrading the A300/310 to the A330/340 was probably the last iteration of 'upgrade' they could do on an existing plane as the technologies moved forward and nothing more could be taken out of that design.. and one important factor must be the oil prices.
Airbus' A370, by the sounds of it at the moment, will only be as big as a 773ER/A346, and sadly it probably won't threaten the 747-8. But the 747-8 will end if one of the A370s can seat around 400, even powering it with 4 engines! I remember quite a while ago that extremely efficient but lower thrust engines is a possibility, and a 400seat plane would be a sweet spot for that! Also with Airbus going larger than the original A350 with the new A370, I suspect in the near future they'll have something 'radically' light to fill the A320 - A370 gap, unless a giant A320?
Airbus' A370, by the sounds of it at the moment, will only be as big as a 773ER/A346, and sadly it probably won't threaten the 747-8. But the 747-8 will end if one of the A370s can seat around 400, even powering it with 4 engines! I remember quite a while ago that extremely efficient but lower thrust engines is a possibility, and a 400seat plane would be a sweet spot for that! Also with Airbus going larger than the original A350 with the new A370, I suspect in the near future they'll have something 'radically' light to fill the A320 - A370 gap, unless a giant A320?
A380 as threat
According to Flight International, airlines(not identified) are pushing Boeing to stretch the 747-8, so obviously not all 747-400's are going to be replaced by various versions of the 777.
Once all the flack subsides, I think the A380 will prove to be a good product with steady sales.
Am glad I am not Chief Electrical Systems engineer at Airbus right now, but it will be sorted out.
Big question for Boeing is how firm is the market for a 747-8 stretch.
Would certainly create issues for the base model.
Cheers
Achace
Once all the flack subsides, I think the A380 will prove to be a good product with steady sales.
Am glad I am not Chief Electrical Systems engineer at Airbus right now, but it will be sorted out.
Big question for Boeing is how firm is the market for a 747-8 stretch.
Would certainly create issues for the base model.
Cheers
Achace
Re: A380 as threat
Nah, he's not on the hot seat. It's a supply chain fiasco, not a design issue. To halve your production rate for several years means that the supply chain managers didn't have the foresight to identify critical components and order a steady supply.achace wrote: Am glad I am not Chief Electrical Systems engineer at Airbus right now, but it will be sorted out.
Personally, I think the supply chain issues run deeper than just wire harnesses. But pointing to one set of components is easier to say than to admit one doesn't have a clue about supply chains.
Boeing learned from their 737 supply chain meltdown a few years ago and implemented a Lean Supply Chain system, which has saved them a ton of money.
748 stretch? I mean you got to say airlines are pushing the manufacturers to the limit, they want the other company to come up with something that can compete (exactly) with the other, but honestly if this continues Airbus and Boeing will just keep competing and both will lose out some day...
OK the mid-size long mid-long range market is OK because the demand is so high, but when you are talking about 450 - 555 seats, which is not going to sell more than 300-400 planes in the next 20 years, then why do you need one from each manufacturer? It's not like the mid-sized where the demand is something like 2000 in China alone in the next 20 years? And can the 748 be stretched? i mean it will be up to over 500 seats and the thing would be pretty long (longer than A346?)... i dont' know but it you see recently airlines just wants a competing aircraft for every model, and even A380??? come on, it's not needed.
OK the mid-size long mid-long range market is OK because the demand is so high, but when you are talking about 450 - 555 seats, which is not going to sell more than 300-400 planes in the next 20 years, then why do you need one from each manufacturer? It's not like the mid-sized where the demand is something like 2000 in China alone in the next 20 years? And can the 748 be stretched? i mean it will be up to over 500 seats and the thing would be pretty long (longer than A346?)... i dont' know but it you see recently airlines just wants a competing aircraft for every model, and even A380??? come on, it's not needed.
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fokker_f27
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I agree. Plus, one of the 748's advantage's is that it can land in many airports, without them having to be modified. If the 748 will be stretched, then it will loose that advantage.CX wrote:748 stretch? I mean you got to say airlines are pushing the manufacturers to the limit, they want the other company to come up with something that can compete (exactly) with the other, but honestly if this continues Airbus and Boeing will just keep competing and both will lose out some day...
OK the mid-size long mid-long range market is OK because the demand is so high, but when you are talking about 450 - 555 seats, which is not going to sell more than 300-400 planes in the next 20 years, then why do you need one from each manufacturer? It's not like the mid-sized where the demand is something like 2000 in China alone in the next 20 years? And can the 748 be stretched? i mean it will be up to over 500 seats and the thing would be pretty long (longer than A346?)... i dont' know but it you see recently airlines just wants a competing aircraft for every model, and even A380??? come on, it's not needed.
The most sexy girl in the sky: The Sud-Est Caravelle 12.
Agreed. When Boeing was making plans for the 747-500/600 ten years ago to compete against the A380, the estimated cost was $8billion.
The 747-8 is a modest improvement over the 747-400. Any improvements beyond that is going to take more significant investment.
The 747-8 is a modest improvement over the 747-400. Any improvements beyond that is going to take more significant investment.
By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly an airplane?
The airport capability thing, well the A380 will pretty much 'only' treat large cities anyway, and it is also fair to say that probably only large cities will be able to support the passenger volume for the A380, and so only large cities being able to accomodate the A380 is not really an issue... and i'm sure more and more airports will make themselves available for the A380.
Stretchign to the cargo-version size would be just a very light stretch, probably just a few rows more? And why isn't the 748 and the 748F the same length anyway? And is the 748 really that competitive? There is so far just one order, is this suggesting a lot of airlines are waiting to see the performance of the A380? If Boeing does stretch the 748, Airbus will have to stretch its A380 quite quickly!
Stretchign to the cargo-version size would be just a very light stretch, probably just a few rows more? And why isn't the 748 and the 748F the same length anyway? And is the 748 really that competitive? There is so far just one order, is this suggesting a lot of airlines are waiting to see the performance of the A380? If Boeing does stretch the 748, Airbus will have to stretch its A380 quite quickly!
Even if Boeing did stretch the 747-8 passenger version to the same length as the cargo version, it would still carry far fewer passengers than the A380. No need for Airbus to stretch the A380 as a response.
I suspect that Boeing initially did not intend to stretch the passenger version that much because it would require more investment to do so. Adding passengers complicates the design more than adding cargo. More passengers mean more potable water, lavatories, possibly more emergency exits, etc. But since they only sold one passenger version so far, Boeing may be realizing it needs to make that investment after all.
I suspect that Boeing initially did not intend to stretch the passenger version that much because it would require more investment to do so. Adding passengers complicates the design more than adding cargo. More passengers mean more potable water, lavatories, possibly more emergency exits, etc. But since they only sold one passenger version so far, Boeing may be realizing it needs to make that investment after all.
By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly an airplane?
Sum up of ATW daily News
http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=5493
Two seats rows (i.e 20 seats) may be added by stretching 747-8I to the size of the 747-8F (the difference is two meters long)
By moving galley carts into the overhead space, it may add another 30.
Those two modifications increase the capacity to 500 in Boeing standard conf (416 for 744, 365 for 77W).
Boeing is doing a wing compatibility study to put the freighter wings on the pax version, that would increase the resale value for conversion.
http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=5493
Two seats rows (i.e 20 seats) may be added by stretching 747-8I to the size of the 747-8F (the difference is two meters long)
By moving galley carts into the overhead space, it may add another 30.
Those two modifications increase the capacity to 500 in Boeing standard conf (416 for 744, 365 for 77W).
Boeing is doing a wing compatibility study to put the freighter wings on the pax version, that would increase the resale value for conversion.
Just read that Airbus is raising it's prices on all the models. This is something that regularly happens to correct for economic inflation. Nevertheless, does anybody have some information on the effects of this move on the relative price-position of airbus vs. boeing? Did boeing allready raise it's prices?
article: http://today.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCo ... XML&rpc=66
Kind regars,
bAIR
article: http://today.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCo ... XML&rpc=66
Kind regars,
bAIR
4% in MayDid Boeing already raise its prices?
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/ ... ing12.html
Teal groups Richard Aboulafia outlook for Airbus
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