fokker_f27 wrote:As said before, redesigning the a350 will take a long time. It'll also take a lot of money. The a350 is already a moderatly succesfull aircraft now.
Yep, the Titanic had a "moderately" successful voyage until it hit that iceberg too!
The big guns hate it, no one of any import has bought it, and the 787 not only is outselling it 3 to 1 right now in firm orders, look at the options behind each 787 customer, they tend to be 3-4 times as many as they ordered initially.
Redesigning the A350 takes another 2 years (according to them) and the 787 delivery slots are already filled until then, so the 300 or so orders that they have lost, they have lost, there isn't much gain to put a weaker A350 in service 2 years earlier anyway...
I am more worried about how they can make a heavier plane drink less fuel than a lighter 787... If they can do it Emirates/SIA order should be their's.. and of course i'm sure a lot would follow as with Emirates/SIA being large customers, the plane can't go wrong..
Airbus can easily give Qatar maybe 5-6 A333s to fill the 2 year delay... But i mean they have no where to go now, what can Qatar do? They will have to wait the same time if they go for the 787 because early slots are used up already.. and if they ordered 60 of the uncompetitive version of the A350, what I can think of is they will order more of the competitive A350 instead of ditching the order..
"We have not signed a purchase agreement because we cannot ... purchase an airplane which is undefined," Chief Executive Akbar Al-Baker told Reuters in an interview on Sunday. "The definition will change, the performance will change, the fuel burn will change. So many things will change that the aeroplane that we signed for in last September is not there anymore," he said. "So we have to, of course, review all our options."
The theoretical plane will be heavier, likely have a higher cabin altitude, and probably a higher price. Emirates and Singapore airlines have had bad experiences with Airsub promises on delivery (A380) and performance misses (A340-500 and A340-600). So therefore, if Airsub comes up with a new design of a heavier aircraft that they promise at Farnborough is more efficient while weighing more than the 787, then Singapore Airlines and Emirates will leap to order it, as a 5th iteration paper promise? I fail to follow the logic.
Airsub stumbles with the A380 and A350 while Boeing plans it next move after the 787-10. I love to see the discipline of the marketplace having success against the indulgence of Government nurtured / protected state national pride job programs.
"Mike Blair on Monday, 22May said that there was demand to boost production rates for its new 787 as Airbus grapples with a potential redesign of its rival A350 aircraft. We are in the middle of looking at what production rates we would like to support, post-2010,” said Mr Bair on a conference call. He said there were “some opportunities” to boost production after that, with a final decision expected in June. " as reported in Financial Times, London.
Do you guys think this will open a crack in A350's current order book, e.g. QR/SQ/EK's etc?
firstly fleabyte, i don't know whether you can't even spell Airbus or whether you think Airsub is funny, but i certainly don't..
Of course an airline is not so stupid that they just 'believe' in what they hear, if the plane is heavier then there must be some other things to offset that disadvantage (how? i want to know too)... Performance will change, but of course in a positive way, or else what is the point of doing the change?
With the A350 revision, we can see all previous orders as not orders, because the A350 that were ordered, is no longer here... but you can expect that customers wanted a less competitive A350, will be happy to go for the new A350... so apart from the 2year delay, i really dont' see how Airbus can lose its previous A350 orders.
A350 customers will probably wait for the new redesign, I don't believe they have another choice, unless they cancel the orders and go for the 787. By the time the A350 comes to the market, the 787 will probably have derivatives out that will out performe the original 787-3, 8 and 9, and will probably out perform any Airbus plane. As most people know, the derivatives to the 747, 767, 777 were the best selling airliners for the Boeing company. Airbus not taking the 787 challenge seriously has comebacked to hurt them, but I don't think Airbus will be in trouble, for I do see the A380 selling well when airliners see how this bird performs.
I don't think Boeing can have too big a response with just a 2-year time advantage over the A350... i mean it will take much longer than 2 years to come up with a new derivative..
I fully agree with you: it will probably take more than two years to come up with that new derivative, yet, the two year lead will generate them the necessary resources to even start up such a project.
The below article concerns the point of view of Akbar Al-Baker, Qatar Airways' chief executive officer.
Basically, he expresses his concern on how airbus keeps on changing the specs on the 350 and states that he cannot guarantee that they will firm up the order.
In the mean while, airbus has to watch that they don't just develop a plane that will be able to compete with the current 787 specs as it is very plausible that by 2012 an enhanced version of the 787 will be released.
Well Qatar didn't even signed up for firm orders... and i think Airbus can always comfort Qatar by things like offering the new A350 at the old A350 price to them to appreciate their commitment etc.. And as for Qatar, i have no idea why they are upset about a plane that they intend to order being improved... the worst part of the change is the 2 year delay - that's it..
You talk about a two year delay as if it's represents no big deal. If your competitors can fly more efficient metal during two consecutive years, it might do harm to your company.
And then there are still the cost of lengthening the contracts on their current planes or leasing additional planes to compensate for the delay. The actual buying price is not the real cost to an airline.
And last but not least, there is the risk that is involved, a risk concerning both timing and performance.
But you see, when they opted for the A350, they already know that they will already be 2 years behind early 787 customers...
If Qatar now turns and buys 787s they will have to wait the same time, so they have no where to go... most important thing is if they really were willing to get 60 of the old A350s which can be said as inferior to the 777/787, then shouldn't them be rather glad that they will almost surely get the early slots for a A350 that is superior? I mean they wanted 60 which is already a third of the total old A350 orders, doesn't that kinda proof Qatar kinda make the wrong choice opting for the A350? Or doesn't that imply the old A350 was indeed inferior?
Well, customer feedback to Airbus on the A350 came a little late because Airbus did not launch the program quickly enough to compete with the 787 in my opinion. Airbus gave Boeing a 2 year start on the 787 program, and now they are scrambling for to relaunch the program again. Now, I guess what's left with the A350 is for Airbus to show the world a viable competitor to the 787, and an airplane that is not a derivative from an old program, but a brand new plane that will take orders away from Boeing. Anyway, I'm excited to see what Airbus comes up with, seeing that they have come up with very technologically mordern airliners that provide comfort, and new technology.
I guess we all can say Airbus was too indecisive and did not really respond to the 787 properly.. they also admitted that underestimated the 787... but as some analysist said before the A330 is so successful that it was probably the most sensible move to heavily modify the A330 instead of researching something completely new... now it proved to be wrong because the 787 is something better by a distant...
Now, I just want to see what Airbus can come up with to better something that is quite significantly lighter than its A350..
