Airbus won't redesign A350

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bits44
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Post by bits44 »

Emirates may be rethinking its A350 plans:

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArti ... n=business
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CX
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Post by CX »

what really is the 'y3 project'?

As for Emirates, i think it's similar to SIA, if it is about what time they'll get the plane, then it will depend hugely on what time slots Airbus will give them.. And if Emirates has 773ERs on order while still ordering A346s, then no reason why they cannot order both the 787s and A350s..

and yes they did tell Boeing to make the 787-10, so if that means that it is 'logical' that Emirates will order 787s, then it is also logical that they are only interested in the 787-10, and that makes it logical to also think that SIA will order A350s because they told Airbus to re-do it.. Will it exactly turn out like that? Let's wait and see..

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David747
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Post by David747 »

It isn't necessarily logical for Emirates to order the 787-10. Emirates is telling Boeing to build a bigger 787, possibly telling Boeing what specifications the 787-10 should have, but that will not necessarily translate into orders for the plane. Cargolux adviced Airbus on the A380F and wound up being the launch customer of the 747-8F.

teach
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Post by teach »

and yes they did tell Boeing to make the 787-10, so if that means that it is 'logical' that Emirates will order 787s, then it is also logical that they are only interested in the 787-10, and that makes it logical to also think that SIA will order A350s because they told Airbus to re-do it..
Emirates also told Airbus to redo the A350. In fact, EK's Clark went as far just last week to say that if Airbus redesigned the A350, and redesigned it right, they shouldn't let a later service entry date stop them, as they would find that airlines would be willing to wait for it.

That squarely contradicts what this latest rumor by 'industry insiders' says. When given the choice between some anonymous industry analyst or 'insider' and Clark himself, I know which one I'd trust more...

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CX
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Post by CX »

If this re-designed A350 will actually leapfrog the 787, airlines will be fighting to get the first delivery slots for the plane...
It will be difficult for EK because they are expanding instead of replacing old planes, the best Airbus can do is to lease some A330s to EK before the A350 comes, and I suppose EK will convert their A346E orders to A350-1000s too... SIA can surely wait a bit longer and so A350 is not a problem for them. I don't know about any others but I'm pretty sure Cathay will replace their A330s/772s/A343s, those are still OK new so again the 2 year delay of the A350 is not a problem..

teach
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Post by teach »

It will be difficult for EK because they are expanding instead of replacing old planes, the best Airbus can do is to lease some A330s to EK before the A350 comes, and I suppose EK will convert their A346E orders to A350-1000s too...
Everybody seems to be forgetting one very important aspect here, i.e. that Emirates is not interested in the 787-8 or the 787-9 (which they have said from the start are too small) but in the 787-10. Now this 787-10 will supposedly only enter service in 2012. The time difference between service entry of these two models (A350 vs 787-10) is therefore a non-issue, and another reason why this latest article is poorly written and researched.

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bits44
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Post by bits44 »

Statement from Tom Enders:

"Our advantage is that we are still in an early stage of the A350's development and can react to some proposals. But the whole thing must naturally remain affordable."




http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArt ... S-A350.xml
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CX
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Post by CX »

Well what do you think customers may say? Make a composite fuselage like the 787? I think that'll be one of them... but i think they simply won't do it because that will cost way too much for sure...
I dont' know but if they keep undecided, it will cause a further delay.. so what are they thinking? If the entry into service is pushed back yet another a year or so, it will mean the A350 has less free air between itself and the 777 replacement..

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fleabyte
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A350

Post by fleabyte »

It will be interesting to see how the A350 will be "better" than the 787. It is still a fire drill, the 5th iteration of a fire drill, but still a fire drill. I have seen no information of Airsub testing composite structures like Boeing has for years, so the innovations must be in othr areas.

It will be interesting to see if Airsub can act like a commercial company and not rely on Government aid to launch this project. I am reading a 10 billion price tag, which in the end is more likely 12-14 billion.

first delivery of the first model in 2013 is promised, but it will more likely be 2014. I am also wondering how many precious man hours worth of engineering Airsub has wasted on 4 false starts, while Boeing methodically designs the 787 and takes it to production.

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bits44
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Post by bits44 »

Emirates and others negotiating 787-10 with Boeing.

http://www.itp.net/business/news/detail ... &category=
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CX
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Post by CX »

As pointed out by another before, the time gap between the 787-10X and the A350-1000X is not huge, probably 3 years? And if they are just to replace their 772ERs, it shouldn't matter much to keep them for just another 3 years... But again I don't see why they cannot order, for example, 25 787s and 25 A350s.. Supposing Airbus can get the new A350 into service by 2013 and the -1000X in 2014, the question really is down to whether the A350 is better than the 787/777.

fleabyte i don't think Airbus needs to disclose what they are doing in the background, so whether they have the composite materials technolgoy we don't know, but it's hard to imagine they don't.. Also how many man hours did Boeing waste with the Sonic Cruiser?? And let's not talk about the government aid thing in this thread..

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Post by CXRules »

Airbus is in a critical point in time. They have a chance to make something better than Boeing 787 and 777, and they better take advantage of that. The specifications of B787 and B777 are known, so they know what their new A350 needs to be. I fully expect a very competitive new A350 this summer. Anything short of that could be diasterous.

The new A350, according to reports on what they are to be, should be a very good plane for airlines such as Cathay Pacific, which they can integrate their fleet of A330/340 and B777 into one on their next cycle of replacement. Similar thing can be said for Emirates.

We'll have to wait and see.

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CX
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Post by CX »

Yes I think the A350 will be better for cathay than the 787 because what they already have a lot of facilities for A330s/340s in place... and since they love the A330 so much, they'll love this too! And to be the 'best airline', i think they'll order the A380 sometime in the next few years, the 748 is great, but it doesn't give that hype, that presence the A380 gives, i mean it will become an image..
so, possibly few years down the line they'll order A350s and A380s as a package.. Sounds like no new Boeings but if the A350 can really take care of both the 777 niche and the 787 niche, all their 772/773/A343/A333 (not the 773ER of course which hasn't even arrived, and A333s that are still on order) can potentially be replaced by different variants of a same type of aircraft!

Will the A350 be better than the 787? If they use the same materials it will still be heavier than the 787 right? How can they make up for that? Just new engines? That is very vulnerable as a slight improvement of a 777 can already have the brand new A350 in danger...

btw CXRules, sorry for my avatar being sooo similar to your's.. :lol:

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bits44
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Post by bits44 »

I find it interesting how this discussion is weighing advantages and disadvantages of the A350 over 787's 777's and whatever else may be in line.

Airbus has yet to even decide whether they are going to proceed with this redesigned aircraft, and to what extent they may revise it, if at all. It would appear if Airbus doesn't know what its going build, how can Airlines be expected to make a rational decision if there is no product available as yet.

The airlines will buy whatever is available at the time its required, with the most economical operating costs as a deciding factor.

Tom Enders has stated that Airbus will build what it can afford and include some suggestions from customers, making it difficult if not impossible for an airline to make an informed intelligent decision on aircraft purchases.


Airlines want a competitive product from both manufacturers to keep prices in line, but they cannot wait forever, and two years is an eternity in the airline business. routes, and fleet acquisitions are planned years in advance, and most importantly delivery slots must be reserved from manufacturers.

They will not risk losing a delivery slot over indecision by one or the other manufacturer.
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Post by smokejumper »

The new design (for the 5th time) A350 is a very preliminary design. Airbus has not decided what to do yet, continue with the 4th design or junk all the work to date and start on a new wing, fuselage and other components for the 5th design. Boeing is much further along with the B787; design is largely completed and components are being procured.

One important consideration is delivery times. Airbus says they can deliver 4th design A350’s in early 2011 or 5th design A350’s in 2012. Boeing plans to deliver the first B787’s in 2008; by 2012 all the introductory issues will be worked out while the A350 will be just starting its teething issues.

Also, given Airbus’ record on delivery promises (A380), I do not know how credible their delivery promises are.

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Post by CXRules »

Your points are well-taken. That's why I fully expect a new competitive A350 by July, or A370 as somebody suggested. The slots for early B787's are almost gone, unless Boeing decided to boost the production rate early. For some airlines, they can wait, others may not. It really depends on each individual airline.

But the bottom line is clear: Airbus must come up with something that can be competitive against the B787 and B777 as they have nothing in the pipeline other than A350 in this class, especially in this high-fuel cost environment. If not, Airbus will lag behind Boeing in terms of orders and deliveries for years to come, starting around 2008-09. As you know, the widebodies are the major money-makers, and that's why we have to expect something competitive from Airbus. They know the stakes are high. A380 may turn out to be a stud in the long run, but right now, it's average at best. Did Airbus make the wrong decision on their strategy? Maybe, at least at this point in time, but in the long run, it's still up in the air.

On the other hand, you must give Boeing credit for making the right move. They basically pinned Airbus into a corner: B777 can potential make A340 extinct; B787 may make A330 to be a "classic." Only time will tell.


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Post by CX »

But how are they going to make it more lighter (thus more efficient?) than the 787?? If it is not lighter then how will it be more efficient?

I think the 'time disadvantage' that Airbus will encouter has already been demonstrated by the fact that Boeing has so much more orders with the 787, and the 787 delivery slots are getting nearer and nearer to the first A350 (5th new design) delivery slot.. If Airbus, yet delays it by another year (2013?) then the time disadvantage will only for production slots for one year, so i mean they have already lost what they should lose...

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Post by teddybAIR »

Some food for thought in the beneath article. In big lines, the article is about the (lack of) product strategy at airbus (analysts' opinion) when it comes to the a350 design and possible cannibalism between 350/330/340's rendering some models obsolete.

http://www.ndtvprofit.com/homepage/news.asp?id=249774

If you ask me, this is the natural downside of offering a maximal fleet commonality. Or how a coin always has two sides, huh ;-)

bAIR

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CX
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Post by CX »

Well, what can you do? With the A330 and A340 being so competitive, why not replace them?

Mikey99
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Post by Mikey99 »

I came across this document -take a look

http://www.iagportal.com

Its about can Airbus catch up with Boeing

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