http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/ ... 07685.html
One of the biggest missteps by McDonnell Douglas was that they assumed that building airplanes in China would naturally lead to more sales in China. Wrong!!!
While Airbus will sell a lot of airplanes in China, it will not necessarily be due to the production being there. In fact, from my personal experience, the Chinese think of western workers to be of higher quality than Chinese workers.
Airbus studying feasibility of A320 production in China
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Airbus studying feasibility of A320 production in China
By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly an airplane?
okay, but according this article Airbus will refurbish A320 planes in Russia into cargo planes.
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2006/01/24/041.html
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2006/01/24/041.html
I am more optimistic. if he A320 production starts in China, the production of its successor will be planned for Europe.
It is like GM has done this for years selling old models, meaning one generation older, in Korea with the brand Daewoo. Hyndai sold old Ford models in the beginning of their development. Same as Mitsubishi in Malaysia and Volkswagen in China and Brasil. Seems to work.
comparing with automotive it could also happen that Airbus provides only a simplified version of an A320 or A319. They were talking about 4 planes a month, 48 a year. I would not expect that they would establish all facilities to provide four models and with 3 types of engines.
So, what is the precise argument that it won't work with Airbus? such large countries as China and India, they might not like that foreigners make big money. I guess that Chinese aviation industry planned to buy an unlimited license of production of a model right from the beginning of negotiations. And Airbus mow must evaluate what they can offer.
just my two cents.
-lr.
It is like GM has done this for years selling old models, meaning one generation older, in Korea with the brand Daewoo. Hyndai sold old Ford models in the beginning of their development. Same as Mitsubishi in Malaysia and Volkswagen in China and Brasil. Seems to work.
comparing with automotive it could also happen that Airbus provides only a simplified version of an A320 or A319. They were talking about 4 planes a month, 48 a year. I would not expect that they would establish all facilities to provide four models and with 3 types of engines.
So, what is the precise argument that it won't work with Airbus? such large countries as China and India, they might not like that foreigners make big money. I guess that Chinese aviation industry planned to buy an unlimited license of production of a model right from the beginning of negotiations. And Airbus mow must evaluate what they can offer.
just my two cents.
-lr.
Re: Airbus studying feasibility of A320 production in China
Why not? The Chinese have long wanted to build their own planes. They are eager to learn aviation technologies from the West. This is a great benefit for China: creating jobs, learning skills, etc, and China will buy more from Airbus. Airbus and China win, the only loosers are Europeans; they may loose jobs.DFW wrote:http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/ ... 07685.html
While Airbus will sell a lot of airplanes in China, it will not necessarily be due to the production being there. In fact, from my personal experience, the Chinese think of western workers to be of higher quality than Chinese workers.
That was a long time ago;things have been changed, I guess.DFW wrote:http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/ ... 07685.html
One of the biggest missteps by McDonnell Douglas was that they assumed that building airplanes in China would naturally lead to more sales in China. Wrong!!!.
Fly safe
Precisely my point. As with McDonnell Douglas, Chinese industry and government are mainly interested in acquiring technology and knowhow. Obviously, they are using the promise of airplane purchases in exchange for work offset. But those promises didn't come to fruition in the case of McDonnell Douglas. China will definitely buy a lot of airplanes from Airbus, but I'm not convinced they wouldn't have bought them regardless. They might buy A320s because (gasp!) they are pretty good airplanes.boeing797 wrote: Why not? The Chinese have long wanted to build their own planes. They are eager to learn aviation technologies from the West. This is a great benefit for China: creating jobs, learning skills, etc, and China will buy more from Airbus. Airbus and China win, the only loosers are Europeans; they may loose jobs.
Hyundai built Ford models under license and Proton Malaysia builds Mitsubishi vehicles under license in order to develop their own knowhow. For Hyundai, this has worked out great and they are taking away market share from Ford in North America. In the same way, Airbus will be developing its own future competitors.lastrow wrote: It is like GM has done this for years selling old models, meaning one generation older, in Korea with the brand Daewoo. Hyndai sold old Ford models in the beginning of their development. Same as Mitsubishi in Malaysia and Volkswagen in China and Brasil. Seems to work.
By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly an airplane?
DFW wrote:Hyundai built Ford models under license and Proton Malaysia builds Mitsubishi vehicles under license in order to develop their own knowhow. For Hyundai, this has worked out great and they are taking away market share from Ford in North America. In the same way, Airbus will be developing its own future competitors.
right. sorry I was not looking closely at the case.
comparing to the GM-Daewoo case, Daewoo ran into financial trouble and GM bought the controlling majority. They prepared a perfect take over, because Daewoo used already many of GM's technologies.
I think the point is that such a cooperations can end in a win win situation for both and it is not taken for granted that such a constellation will automatically fail.
-lr.
90% of airbus production is A320
effectively, Airbus will be exporting 90% of the labor intensive A320 assembly - to a country with a labor reserve of 800 million peasants.
Globalization - the 3rd world pulls the 1st world living standard down to a lower equilibrium, it is an unstoppable force.
Globalization - the 3rd world pulls the 1st world living standard down to a lower equilibrium, it is an unstoppable force.
Airbus seems desperate to catch up with Boeing. They won't have more launch-aid, and viable technologies to compete. They can see themselves their market share reduced to maybe 30-40% in a few years.vc-10 wrote:As DFW said, if China gets the wing (the most important part) then we will see Chinese jets in 10 years time, and why would Airbus want that?
Another speculation is this: Airbus believes China cannot build planes that can compete head-on with Airbus'. Ten years from now, both Airbus and Boeing are so well ahead China in designing planes that China can hardly catch up. Building planes is not like building cars. The technologies used to build planes cover many science, engineering disciplines. And it is a risky business. Investing billions of dollars on developing the first Chinese jets can be a big loss. That is why, I think, Japan although being advanced in science and engineering, so far has not got into aircraft-making business.
Just my opinion.
not so sure
of course building airplanes is high-tech, but if china can go into space, they can surely build airplanes, and will, the compete.
brazil, after all, is a 'third-world' country in many ways but has built an industry that is now the global leader in the regional market.
so this is typical of western short interest. airbus, to garner market share is digging its own grave (along with boeing's).
japan never got into the jetliner market, not because they couldn't, but because they realized it would be too upsetting to the US and Europe to erode one of their only remaining positions of strength in manufacturing. rather than risk total backlash, they've left that upper market while they dominate just about every market.
will china be so sensitive and magnanimous? doubtful.
brazil, after all, is a 'third-world' country in many ways but has built an industry that is now the global leader in the regional market.
so this is typical of western short interest. airbus, to garner market share is digging its own grave (along with boeing's).
japan never got into the jetliner market, not because they couldn't, but because they realized it would be too upsetting to the US and Europe to erode one of their only remaining positions of strength in manufacturing. rather than risk total backlash, they've left that upper market while they dominate just about every market.
will china be so sensitive and magnanimous? doubtful.
Historically, to succeed in industries such as aircraft manufacturing, you need a large domestic market to allow you "home field advantage" over international competitors. The home field advantage can be in the form of nationalism, cultural understanding, established supplier relations, and -- in the case of China -- government collusion. All these things are in place in China.
China can therefore easily create a 100+ passenger airplane company with this domestic market (remember the forecasts of 1600 airplanes over the next 20 years by both Airbus and Boeing). As an added bonus, the Chinese government makes all buying decisions on airplanes. Then China will become a global threat to Airbus and Boeing. Dim is right -- Airbus is digging its own grave.
China can therefore easily create a 100+ passenger airplane company with this domestic market (remember the forecasts of 1600 airplanes over the next 20 years by both Airbus and Boeing). As an added bonus, the Chinese government makes all buying decisions on airplanes. Then China will become a global threat to Airbus and Boeing. Dim is right -- Airbus is digging its own grave.
By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly an airplane?
When this happens (in future) Humboldt et al. will be long gone from Airbus. These things (starting new production, taking over technologies) will still take time but it is truth, that Airbus is just looking for some more money and to kiss up good to Chinese.
Sadly they do not have Japanese strategy approach. Boeing (and most of American firms) are learning from Douglas' experience and they are trying not to repeat (I am talking aerospace).
Bombardier resisted temptation to open an assembly line in China. Embraer did not and look what has happened. If they didn't have that last order, the Harbin factory would be gone (closed) within months.
So these are the lessons learned:
1) Do not share all the technology + knowledge base since it will got back at you
2) Be careful when working together with Chinese companies since sooner or latter they will overwhelm you.
I know that few guys in Airbus are going home smiling, happy and with full pockets but long term wise it is bad (also for Boeing in a very long run).
Well that's progress, I suppose.
Sadly they do not have Japanese strategy approach. Boeing (and most of American firms) are learning from Douglas' experience and they are trying not to repeat (I am talking aerospace).
Bombardier resisted temptation to open an assembly line in China. Embraer did not and look what has happened. If they didn't have that last order, the Harbin factory would be gone (closed) within months.
So these are the lessons learned:
1) Do not share all the technology + knowledge base since it will got back at you
2) Be careful when working together with Chinese companies since sooner or latter they will overwhelm you.
I know that few guys in Airbus are going home smiling, happy and with full pockets but long term wise it is bad (also for Boeing in a very long run).
Well that's progress, I suppose.
Re: not so sure
The Russians launched the first satellite, and moreover they have been building all kinds of aircrafts for years but they so far cannot build any thing that can compete with A & B in terms of technologies and prices.Dim wrote:of course building airplanes is high-tech, but if china can go into space, they can surely build airplanes, and will, the compete.
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Would it be OK if they can go into business, and regional aircraft manufacturing without upsetting big brothers?Dim wrote: japan never got into the jetliner market, not because they couldn't, but because they realized it would be too upsetting to the US and Europe to erode one of their only remaining positions of strength in manufacturing. rather than risk total backlash, they've left that upper market while they dominate just about every market.
not
Brazil's domestic market is smaller than Japan's and they've done just fine. Canada as well is a regional jet powerhouse with a smaller domestic market than Japan.
Japan clearly has not wanted to push too hard to the top of the food chain, instead content to build out the larger markets below. Remember, Japan has always been at risk or raising the ire of the Europeans and Americans with too much success. They voluntarily kept their car exports down to avoid limits and tariffs. Sometimes you have to go slow to not scare people off, and that's what Japan has done. Big Aviation is very sexy and Europe and the US would be pushed into protectionist action if the Japanese used their amazing skills to kill off Boeing and Airbus.
China is at the same risk, but again, they are too smart to do it too quickly.
Japan clearly has not wanted to push too hard to the top of the food chain, instead content to build out the larger markets below. Remember, Japan has always been at risk or raising the ire of the Europeans and Americans with too much success. They voluntarily kept their car exports down to avoid limits and tariffs. Sometimes you have to go slow to not scare people off, and that's what Japan has done. Big Aviation is very sexy and Europe and the US would be pushed into protectionist action if the Japanese used their amazing skills to kill off Boeing and Airbus.
China is at the same risk, but again, they are too smart to do it too quickly.