The Boeing 747-Adv

[flyingblueboy]

This Boeing, once announced, will do a bang so loud people in Toulouse will be scared of..

All seems right for an announce now.. Look at A350, is mostly vaporware and is already sold..

B747A is a different matter, at the end is like a restyling, with huge advantages for airlines and line saving for Boeing..

What are they waiting for, for Airbus people to design something there ?

I donno seems likes Boeing has to give a favour to someone...

Are they waiting to loose another market that is without dubts their ?

what airplane are they gonna sell once the 747 is gone for good ?

I'm waiting for your posts...

[CX]

Doing a favour? Don't think so, but Airbus is NOT using launch aid for its A350...

While Boeing can (seemingly) quite easily introduce the 747Adv, Airbus can also similarly, quite easily introduce a longer A340 or a smaller A380... And probably the question to Boeing is, are there so many buyers?? At the end, airlines would probably benefit but the losers will be both Boeing and Airbus..

[flyingblueboy]

My question was and is ..With all this much info around, and interests (suppose there is all this interest), what is stopping Boeing to go ahead ?

The article in Wikipedia, i know is not official, goes pretty deep in details.. seems to me like the project is pretty done, after all we don't expect a shot time deliver..

Today news about Ba : "Walsh, who took over from Sir Rod Eddington only a week ago, also talked of placing a multi-billion pound order with Boeing to replace BA's fleet.

No final decision has been made and Walsh's fleet experts are talking to Boeing and Airbus about its requirements. But it is clear that BA is taken by Boeing's Advanced version of the 747, which has yet to be built." is showing again the interest of BA.

this is the article http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/artic ... _page_id=2

As someone said earlier, BA is more keen on Boeing and i'm sure, with all those cost about training to be saved, others would follow.

I won't argue about an extended A34x or a trimmed A380, who knows, thing is, in the large planes market, where there is an end at the horizon for the 747 due to costs of running it (i know won't be easy or cheap to run A380, but here i'm not talking about Airbus, their planes are there and everyone can see them fly high), where is Boeing gonna fly other than B74A?

Let's see what the future will bring..

P.S. About loosers.. here, a B74A to me is gonna save the boeing lines and works.. so not too much of a loose here, it may be a problem in Airbus, but with all the sales they done recently in the 320, 350 and 380 families i cannot see a purple dark sky infact for Airbus looks to me it's all bright and shining, apart some delay here and there, that is kinda normal for a new plane delivery and test anyway...

[Mordoch]

While Boeing can (seemingly) quite easily introduce the 747Adv, Airbus can also similarly, quite easily introduce a longer A340 or a smaller A380... And probably the question to Boeing is, are there so many buyers?? At the end, airlines would probably benefit but the losers will be both Boeing and Airbus..

While Airbus could create a shrunk version of the A380, it wouldn't be a remotely competitive product. The 380 was designed to be its current size or larger. A shrunk 380 would still weigh substantially more than the 747ADJ and burn substantially more fuel. Basically no-one would buy it given its substantially higher operating expense.

While I don't know all the details of the technical issues with a A340 streach, there are a variety of blatant issues here. The current greatest seating capacity of the A340 is about 380 people. The 747ADV by contrast can carry at least 450 people. However the actual performance differences are greater than the this, because the A340 variant which has the 380 person seating capacity has a range of just 13,890 kilometers, while the 747ADV has a range of about 14,816 kilometers. Just going by the increased seating capacity and not considering that the plane might need to be even larger to actually equal the 747ADV's max range, the A340 would need around an 18% streach of the plane to equal the 747ADV. The 747ADV by contrast, is a mere 5.1 percent streach. In other words, a A340 set to compete with the 747ADV is a vastly more dramatic variant that would be an ambitious and expensive project assuming it can even be made that large using the baseline of the A340 design, and the A340 variant would come out years after the 747ADV.

This variant of the A340 would also be 88.85 meters long. The longest regular commercial plane in the world at the moment is the 777-300 which is just 73.9 meters long. The longer size of such a A340 is a huge problem which means many airports and their hangers can't currently accommodate the theoretical variant, and many wouldn't be willing to do so given the small number of likely sales of the plane in the first place. (This isn't even considering that the plane wouldn't offer new capability that the 747ADV already provides, making such an airport upgrade tougher to justify. I haven't even gone into that the A340 couldn't accommodate oversized cargo the way a Boeing 747ADV cargo variant could.

In other words, Airbus would need to come out with a whole new design to effective compete with the 747ADV in its seating capacity class.

Note: While my streach calculation for the A340 might be a bit high as given, it didn't factor in that a more realistic max seating capacity for the current A340-600 which is around 372, while the 747ADV could actually go much higher with tighter seating.

[CXRules]

I won't argue about an extended A34x or a trimmed A380, who knows, thing is, in the large planes market, where there is an end at the horizon for the 747 due to costs of running it (i know won't be easy or cheap to run A380, but here i'm not talking about Airbus, their planes are there and everyone can see them fly high), where is Boeing gonna fly other than B74A?

How about B777s? If you talk about A340 and A380 in the same breathe, then you must talk about B747Adv AND B777s. As far as I know, B777-300 is bigger than A340-600, and it is a great replacement for the older B747s (ie -200, -300) for airlines like Cathay, JAL, ANA, Air France, and Singapore Airlines. Also, B777 now has cargo version that A340 has yet to offer.

For Cathay, I have no idea why they are not replacing some of their 744s with A380s... their long haul routes like HK->LA should be replaced with A380s and also use the A380 as an ultra high volume to fly some routes from Hong Kong to Japan, China, Taiwan instead of sending like 5 A333s per day to each destination...

Cathay Pacific is a conservative airline. They're not going to order new type of planes because of hype or pride. The HKG-LAX route and the HKG-LHR route are served with at least 3 times a day but at different time slots, which allow them to make different connections; thus, allowing travelers more choices of time departures or arrivals through the HK hub. Obviously, that is a plus (more frequencies), and that's why there's no need for a very large plane like the A380 at this point. It doesn't mean they won't want it later, but at this point, the answer is no.

[boeing797]

I think unlike Baby Airbus who received launch aid from governments, Boeing just wants to make sure the program B747AV is profitable. If the US had supported Boeing with launch aid like the European governments do, B747AV would have taken off long time ago.

Ciao

[flyingblueboy]

I know it can sound a bit selfish, but i'd love to see a 747 Advanced, it's amazing to see how a place dated 1970 can still be centre of attentions, and still selling. A 747 Advanced, with updated tech solutions will give fresh air to the King, while Airbus is still testing.
I don't want to find who is best, i don't care, to me 340, 777, 350, 787, 380 are all nice machines and as an end user, as a customer, i love to see new things coming out, if fuel efficient and cheaper even better, future goes in that direction anyway.
Well 777/787, a modified 340 or even 350 yes could compete there maybe, fact is 747 with little modifications would do a job that is curretly doing well for so many years and so many airlines.
380 can move a lot all together, but that is partially a different market, one plane is designed to move a lot of people, all together, cheaply..
The other is a plane that can do a similar job, but has less issues in term of security, airport mods, certifications. Is just a way to do what the airlines are doing right now, but with a little more seats and saving some money in fuel.
This is not the solution of the overcrowded skies but i think it goes in the right direction.
Sure Boeing need to evaluate all the costs and risks, i'm just here to wait for the decision and i hope is gonna be a GO on.

[CXRules]

Here's a link to a news story on Cathay Pacific commenting on A380

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_deta ... r=20051020

[boeing797]

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/21/news/fo ... /index.htm

Thanks Mordoch

[Mordoch]

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/21/news/fo ... /index.htm

But it is only 6% more fuel efficient than the 747-400. I wonder who is gonna operate this plane with this little improvement in fuel efficiency to carry passengers. A380 is 12% better than B747-400 so B747AV cannot compete with A380 in this term. Hmmm...very disappointed

You're BADLY misreading the article. Its 13% more fuel efficient than the B747-400.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.a ... 950E0B6%7D

[bits44]

Its official! almost...........................

Randy Baseler VP of Sales announced in Paris


http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005- ... 665864.htm

[CX]

ok so Boeing admits 'We were wrong before that the future of the market is for mid-sized longhaul planes' and will be telling airlines that 'Afterall you need big planes, i was wrong, but still, believe me and don't believe Airbus'..

stuff Boeing...

Regarding the CX long haul flights, I think the 'high frequency' planes are needed for short flights such as to Taiwan, mainland China, Thailand etc. for people flying for business purposes... As for long haul flights, I really don't see much of an advantage running multiple flights daily instead of 1 or 2 high volume flights daily..
E.g. from HKG->AKL, on few days of the week CX runs 2 flights, and the times of the 2 flights are separated by about 3 hours which doesn't mean a thing for travellers... Of course I'm not saying they should send a A380 here because HKG-AKL does not consistently have high volume.. but i mean it works the same for LA, or London etc. flights where the passenger volume is high...

[CX]

Regarding the 'efficiency of 74A over 744', i think 'Trip cost' will be reduced by just 6%, which includes the 13% fuel reduction..
Well I mean a 'trip' is not JUST about fuel, so overall a trip is reduced by 6%.

This may seem small compared to the A380 but I have to say that in order to maximise the use of the A380, you really need to fill the seats with like 500 people... while you can get away with 400-450 with the 74A.. But still, Boeing are idiots.

[CXRules]

Regarding the CX long haul flights, I think the 'high frequency' planes are needed for short flights such as to Taiwan, mainland China, Thailand etc. for people flying for business purposes... As for long haul flights, I really don't see much of an advantage running multiple flights daily instead of 1 or 2 high volume flights daily..
E.g. from HKG->AKL, on few days of the week CX runs 2 flights, and the times of the 2 flights are separated by about 3 hours which doesn't mean a thing for travellers... Of course I'm not saying they should send a A380 here because HKG-AKL does not consistently have high volume.. but i mean it works the same for LA, or London etc. flights where the passenger volume is high...

Did you read the article I posted in this topic earlier at all? In the article, I quote, "While the aircraft (A380) is able to carry large numbers, its flight frequency will be low and this may have a negative effect on an airline's efficiency, Chen said (Chen is the CEO of CX)."

Let me give you a real example. LHR to SYD via HKG. Passengers (business or leisure) can choice from leaving LHR around noon and arriving at HKG early morning with about an hour to hour and a half to connect flight leaving for SYD, arriving there at night. Or, Passengers can leave at night from LHR, arriving in HKG early evening, and leave for SYD in 1-3 hours, depending the choice of flights, arriving at SYD in the morning. Similar is true flying from SYD to LHR.

As for LAX, arriving early at LAX (early afternoon) allows passengers to connect U.S. domestic flights. Arriving at night to LAX helps passengers to connect to Latin America. More choices for your customers are always a plus, especially for a carrier that's so customer-oriented like CX.

[CaptainEd]

I think the B-747 advanced models will prevail in the competition, and may just be helped along by what I suspect is coming - A major devaluation of the US$ to the stronger EUro.

Something is afoot - a perfectly competent Chairman of "THE FED", Greenspan, has been replaced with a man whose knickname in the financial world is "The Printer".

The US economy is being severely strained right now because of the huge claims against insurance companies for damage caused by massive destruction by KATRINA and WILMA. Insurance companies in turn are heavily invested by other financial institutions. Yesterday the DOW dropped $115.

We shall see.

[HorsePower]

The B747-Adv (-500/600?) will be launched in December, no doubt on that. Also, Boeing is in advanced ( ) talks with SQ and QF concerning the B747-Adv.

Regards

Seb.

[CaptainEd]

The thing I don't like about this "Advanced" model is the lack of a FE. Surely, with all the money invested in these aircraft, including the cost of automating the systems that must now be monitored and corrective action taken by the two pilots, a FE is justified both financially and operationally.

I feel that safety is being compromised, as well as a smooth operation.

[Ovostar]

Do you think they'll launch both ones The passenger version and the cargo version? Or just the cargo ?

[HorsePower]

Both versions will be launched.

[Ovostar]

Which companies are interested to buy the passenger version of the 747adv ?