Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Join this forum to discuss the latest news that happened in the world of commercial aviation.

Moderator: Latest news team

Post Reply
Flanker2
Posts: 1741
Joined: 05 Dec 2012, 23:15

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Flanker2 »

The exponential growth of Ebola continues. The growth percentages of new cases are multiplying themselves by a factor of 3 and the numbers of new cases by almost 5.

Every single of these numbers is a person...
The WHO is trying to appease itself by saying that Ebola is slowing down in Liberia.

Update 30/10/2014
Cases as of 22/10/2014: 9911 of which deaths 4868
Cases as of 30/10/2014: 13.073 of which deaths 4922.
8-day delta: 3161 new cases (+31,9%), 54 new deaths (+1,1%).
The weekly projected weekly increase rate is 2766 new cases per week (+27,9%), 47 new deaths per week (+1,0%).

Last week
Update 22/10/2014
Cases as of 17/10/2014: 9216 of which deaths 4555
Cases as of 22/10/2014: 9911, of which deaths 4868.
5-day delta: 695 new cases (+7.5%), 313 new deaths (+6,9%).
The weekly projected weekly increase rate is 973 new cases per week (+10,6%), 438 new deaths per week (+9,6%).

User avatar
sn26567
Posts: 40840
Joined: 13 Feb 2003, 00:00
Location: Rosières/Rozieren, Belgium
Contact:

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by sn26567 »

Flanker2 wrote:The exponential growth of Ebola continues.
Exponential? This graph seems to show the contrary, thanks to the international relief effort:

Image
André
ex Sabena #26567

User avatar
RoMax
Posts: 4454
Joined: 20 Jun 2009, 16:32

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by RoMax »

sn26567 wrote:
Flanker2 wrote:The exponential growth of Ebola continues.
Exponential? This graph seems to show the contrary, thanks to the international relief effort:
For which Belgium is now also praised by the US ambassador for the UN, Samantha Power. She's even happy about SN's flights to the region, enabling transport of aid workers and relief goods.

http://www.knack.be/nieuws/wereld/belgi ... 06945.html

Flanker2
Posts: 1741
Joined: 05 Dec 2012, 23:15

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Flanker2 »

SN26557, look at the graph yourself.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but those are total death numbers.
According to the graph, in Liberia some people have risen from their graves... or were resuscitated by whatever you believe in... or it's a correction that went unexplained.

If you remove that correction, the death toll is still growing very fast as are the new infections.

So this weeks' death toll should be taken with a big pinch of salt as it does not reflect the reality.

Passenger
Posts: 7274
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Passenger »

Flanker2 wrote:Every single of these numbers is a person...
What an illplaced remark from someone who demands that commercial flights to/from the ebola region are stopped, thus enabling health care workers to get there.

What a cynical remark from someone who asks for a mandatory three week quarantine for aid workers, thus discouraging some health care workers to fight ebola.

Passenger
Posts: 7274
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Passenger »

sn26567 wrote:Ebola outbreak: Nurse Kaci Hickox defies quarantine

A US nurse who returned from treating Ebola patients in Sierra Leone has defied a quarantine order, leaving her house in Maine for a brief bike ride. Kaci Hickox maintains isolation is unnecessary, as she has no symptoms and has tested negative for Ebola.
Great !

There is a series of photos from that bicycle tour in this report:

http://www.pressherald.com/2014/10/30/k ... -on-bikes/

Passenger
Posts: 7274
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Passenger »

Flanker2 wrote:Update 30/10/2014
Cases as of 22/10/2014: 9911 of which deaths 4868
Cases as of 30/10/2014: 13.073 of which deaths 4922.
8-day delta: 3161 new cases (+31,9%), 54 new deaths (+1,1%).
The weekly projected weekly increase rate is 2766 new cases per week (+27,9%), 47 new deaths per week (+1,0%).
For those who want all figures: they are in this pdf (1,1 Mb):
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/1066 ... 14_eng.pdf

Source page:
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/

Homo Aeroportus
Posts: 1491
Joined: 24 Feb 2007, 18:28
Location: 2300NM due South of North Pole

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Homo Aeroportus »

One needs to read the WHO report correctly.

There is a note below the graph :

*The marked increase in the cumulative total number of cases compared with the situation report of 22 October results from a more comprehensive assessment of patient databases. The additional 3 792 cases have occurred throughout the epidemic period, not only since 22 October.

H.A.

Passenger
Posts: 7274
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Passenger »

RoMax wrote: ... For which Belgium is now also praised by the US ambassador for the UN, Samantha Power. She's even happy about SN's flights to the region, enabling transport of aid workers and relief goods.

http://www.knack.be/nieuws/wereld/belgi ... 06945.html
Short interview with Flemish state tv VRT (1 minute, English):
http://deredactie.be/cm/vrtnieuws/video ... ower_quote

Report of Power's press conference by Flemish commercial tv VTM. Please note: from a previous post, I know that access to VTM.be is blocked in some regions. I therefore give the copy/paste that Het Laatste Nieuws (commercial partner of VTM) has put online:

HLN:
http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/3805/Buitenlan ... taan.dhtml

VTM:
http://nieuws.vtm.be/buitenland/114231- ... jven-staan

b-west

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by b-west »

As FDR once said: the only thing we need to fear is fear itself.

And if I may ad: fear mongers.

User avatar
sn26567
Posts: 40840
Joined: 13 Feb 2003, 00:00
Location: Rosières/Rozieren, Belgium
Contact:

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by sn26567 »

Passenger wrote:
RoMax wrote: ... For which Belgium is now also praised by the US ambassador for the UN, Samantha Power. She's even happy about SN's flights to the region, enabling transport of aid workers and relief goods.
In English (from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs):

Ebola response: Belgium-US coordination

BRUSSELS, Kingdom of Belgium, October 30, 2014/African Press Organization (APO)/ — The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Development Cooperation Alexander De Croo, the Minister of Social Affairs and Public Health Maggie De Block and Ebola coordinator Dr. Erika Vlieghe met on Thursday 30 October with Samantha Power, Permanent Representative of the United States to the United Nations.

Ambassador Samantha Power conducted the past few days a field visit to the three West African countries most affected by Ebola: Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. She shared her experiences with the two Belgian ministers. Ambassador Power also praised and thanked Belgium for its efforts in providing humanitarian aid to the affected countries and for the preventive measures Belgium has taken to face the Ebola epidemic.

The meeting took place at the residence of the American ambassador in Brussels.

In recent months and recent weeks, our country has allocated over 35 million euros for the necessary humanitarian assistance. “The Ebola crisis is not only a sanitary but also a humanitarian crisis. The epidemic decimates entire communities in West Africa. The US ambassador to the United Nationsconfirmed this during our exchange. Infected people have little chance of survival, hospitals are no longer able to cope with the influx of patients,schools are closed and a food crisis looms. We cannot close our eyes to this humanitarian tragedy,” said the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Development Cooperation Alexander De Croo. He stated that “the Belgian development cooperation strongly supports aid organisations that can act directly on the ground, organisations which possess the expertise and experience needed in the affected countries. Last week, our country released additional funds, thus bringing our commitment to more than 35 million euros. This effort is also clearly appreciated at the international level.

Coordinator

Belgium has taken in recent months a series of preventive measures, issued recommendations and established procedures among companies and services that may come in contact with people who have sojourned in the three affected countries. Since the spring of 2014, the Federal Public Service (FPS) Public Health has been providing information and has led consultations with all concerned sectors, among others the FPS Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defence, the Scientific Institute of Public Health, the Communities and the Regions, the Federal Agency for the Safety of the Food Chain, Brussels Airlines, Brussels Airport, the Port of Antwerp, hospitals and doctors (general practitioners), etc.” The risk that an infected person enters our country is tenuous, but we must take all possible measures to ensure that our specialists and our specialised teams are able toprovide the correct and best care to patients, without this affecting the daily operations of hospitals and of the entire health sector,” indicated Maggie De Block, Minister of Social Affairs and Public Health.

On October 17, 2014, Maggie De Block appointed Dr. Erika Vlieghe, specialised in infectious diseases, as Ebola coordinator and Dr. Daniel Reynders as her deputy in order to support all initiatives in this area, to assess them, and adapt and complete them where necessary. Since October 20,Brussels Airport imposes temperature controls for passengers coming from the three countries at risk as an additional security measure to dispel the numerous fears from airport personnel. These controls are part of a much larger Ebola strategy, which contains ten measures in addition to the temperature controls carried out in the countries of origin.
André
ex Sabena #26567

Passenger
Posts: 7274
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Passenger »

Aer Lingus flight EI-433 from Milan to Dublin was put in a 50 minute ebola quarantine after landing today. Reason: a passenger had written 'Attentione Ebola" on a plastic cup. The man has been arrested and will appear in court on Friday. Police say he's prosecuted for violation of the Irish Air Navigation and Transport Act, but I wonder if the Judge will agree with that.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/ne ... 05232.html

User avatar
sn26567
Posts: 40840
Joined: 13 Feb 2003, 00:00
Location: Rosières/Rozieren, Belgium
Contact:

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by sn26567 »

Image
André
ex Sabena #26567

Passenger
Posts: 7274
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Passenger »

On 18th October, a Nigerian male citizen collapsed at Madrid Barajas Airport. He arrived from Istanbul, and he fainted in the airport terminal. Because he vomited, an ebola alert was given and no one deared to assist the man. Emergency services were soon at the scene, but they also didn't assist the patient. They called for colluegues with special ebola suits, who arrived about one hour later. They saw that the patient meanwhile had deceased. But it wasn't too difficult for them to establish the cause: the Nigerian man wasn't an ebola patient but an even deadly narcotics smuggler: he had vomited broken cocaïne capsules.

This story appeared in several newspapers, all referring to El Mundo as origin:
http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2014/10/24 ... b456e.html

sean1982
Posts: 3260
Joined: 18 Mar 2003, 00:00
Contact:

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by sean1982 »

Passenger wrote:On 18th October, a Nigerian male citizen collapsed at Madrid Barajas Airport. He arrived from Istanbul, and he fainted in the airport terminal. Because he vomited, an ebola alert was given and no one deared to assist the man. Emergency services were soon at the scene, but they also didn't assist the patient. They called for colluegues with special ebola suits, who arrived about one hour later. They saw that the patient meanwhile had deceased. But it wasn't too difficult for them to establish the cause: the Nigerian man wasn't an ebola patient but an even deadly narcotics smuggler: he had vomited broken cocaïne capsules.

This story appeared in several newspapers, all referring to El Mundo as origin:
http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2014/10/24 ... b456e.html
They handled it correctly. Nobodys pay is high enough to risk your own life.

Passenger
Posts: 7274
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Passenger »

sean1982 wrote:
Passenger wrote:On 18th October, a Nigerian male citizen collapsed at Madrid Barajas Airport. He arrived from Istanbul, and he fainted in the airport terminal. Because he vomited, an ebola alert was given and no one deared to assist the man. Emergency services were soon at the scene, but they also didn't assist the patient. They called for colluegues with special ebola suits, who arrived about one hour later. They saw that the patient meanwhile had deceased. But it wasn't too difficult for them to establish the cause: the Nigerian man wasn't an ebola patient but an even deadly narcotics smuggler: he had vomited broken cocaïne capsules.

This story appeared in several newspapers, all referring to El Mundo as origin:
http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2014/10/24 ... b456e.html
They handled it correctly. Nobodys pay is high enough to risk your own life.
I agree with you. And off topic: when I posted this, I didn't add what I do now: one drug dealer less on the world means that his "clients" have more chance to survive that killing stuff.

sn-remember
Posts: 848
Joined: 13 Sep 2004, 00:00
Location: Jodoigne/Geldenaken
Contact:

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by sn-remember »

About the latest Ebola test kit ..
It can detect the virus at the early stage of the disease, already during the asymptomatic phase.
Every pax should be tested at first airport arrival (cmn,cdg,bru) period.
The test is positive 48-72 hours prior to the development of symptoms ..
Pax tested negative at arrival airport should be retested every 48h at least, possibly at home provided the procedure is properly enforced .. (in that case removing the need for public authoriries isolation)
Read this : http://www.techtimes.com/articles/17927 ... ic-kit.htm
And no, this is not the time for optimism yet ... The epidemy continues to spread in each of the 3 front countries.

Passenger
Posts: 7274
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Passenger »

sn-remember wrote:About the latest Ebola test kit .. It can detect the virus at the early stage of the disease, already during the asymptomatic phase. Every pax should be tested at first airport arrival (cmn,cdg,bru) period. Or after a short time in isolation ? Let the medical community decide that but from what I gather, the isolation would not have to be long (or even necessary ?)
Read this : http://www.techtimes.com/articles/17927 ... ic-kit.htm
The very first ebola symptom (even during the "asymptomatic phase") always is fever. Therefore, a fever check is done at departure airports (and recently also at arrival hospitals). This kit doens’t improve that fever check: it only “detects even minute quantities of the disease in the early stages" (cfr Southampton University). The problem with these kits is that they cause false negatives when done on someone with no ebola symptom yet. Only once there is at least one “asymptomic symptom” this tool may be useful indeed when there is no access to mobile or normal labs. And let's not forget it also comes with a price:
sn-remember wrote:Let the medical community decide ...
Couldn't agree more with you: let the medical community decide on how to deal with ebola. Not politicians, not public opinion.

sn-remember
Posts: 848
Joined: 13 Sep 2004, 00:00
Location: Jodoigne/Geldenaken
Contact:

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by sn-remember »

Sorry I reworded my post .. after reading again the information referenced, as the test is positive 48-72 hours prior to the development of symptoms ..
The test kists are being rushed into extensive production, expect them to be used as soon as available also at the screening airports.
Last edited by sn-remember on 31 Oct 2014, 17:44, edited 1 time in total.

Passenger
Posts: 7274
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

Post by Passenger »

sn-remember wrote:Sorry I reworded my post .. after reading again the information referenced, as the test is positive 48-72 hours prior to the development of symptoms .. The test kists are now in fast production, expect them to be used as soon as available at the screening airports.
If so, then expect lots of false negatives: people who are tested on ebola and declared negative, but who will develop ebola some time later. Example: a relative has unprotected direct contact with an ebola ill patient, just before leaving to the airport (or boarding a bus, or boarding a ship). That person now is contanimated, but yet the kit test will show negative because the ebola virus hasn't reached the blood channels yet. That's what medics call false negative: patient is advised he's clean, he has no ebola, he doens't have to worry.

Post Reply