Brussels Airlines future and financial perspective

[Flanker2]

Sorry but I really wonder what kind of expectations people have from SN. A small hybrid-FSC surrounded by the biggest hubs in Europe and with its hub close to one of the largest FR bases in continental Europe (especially if you combine CRL and BRU bases).

Yet the Dutch can transport 55 million pax out of "boerengat" Amsterdam, and the Swiss from ZRH.
Aviation in Europe is a wide open market and while SN is squeezed between 5 major hubs, it is also surrounded by the biggest travel markets in Europe being the U.K., The Netherlands, Germany and France presenting a unique opportunity for major success.

I don't think that people have too high expectations, it's SN that lacks ambition.
I think that the Sabena experiment has terrorised the Belgian aviation environment so badly that they can't see SN as a separate, truly new entity that can have a bright future.
The Swiss have been brave in these regards. They've been shocked, have swallowed it and went back into it from scratch, to become the most profitable airline in Europe.
It's all in the head.

[RoMax]

Yet the Dutch can transport 55 million pax out of "boerengat" Amsterdam, and the Swiss from ZRH.
Aviation in Europe is a wide open market and while SN is squeezed between 5 major hubs, it is also surrounded by the biggest travel markets in Europe being the U.K., The Netherlands, Germany and France presenting a unique opportunity for major success.

What you call a "boerengat" (and let's talk about the Netherlands, or at least the Randstad, instead of just Amsterdam) has a 'slightly' bigger and more international economy than that other "boerengat" slightly more to the south, just for your information. Also the Netherlands always had a very good progressive aviation policy, contrary to Belgium. You act like it's all SN's fault, that fight was already lost many decades ago, not 15 years ago.

And about Swiss/ZRH, yes they are quite some steps ahaid of SN. But how many money was put in the relaunch of a real Swiss carrier after Swissair, how much support did they get from Swiss bancs and other major investors and stakeholders?

If you can't even see the structural differences of BRU compared to ZRH and AMS and the situation of SN vs LX and KL that are outside the power of SN itself...

This stupid overambitious way of thinking is one of the main reasons why so many airline projects end up in a big, terrible financial disaster. But sure, keep on thinking that BRU could have seen a major relaunch after Sabena with a carrier by now having at least 100 aircraft and intercontinental routes all over the world. There is lost potential, but some here are exagerating quite a bit.

[Flanker2]

This stupid overambitious way of thinking is one of the main reasons why so many airline projects end up in a big, terrible financial disaster. But sure, keep on thinking that BRU could have seen a major relaunch after Sabena with a carrier by now having at least 100 aircraft and intercontinental routes all over the world. There is lost potential, but some here are exagerating quite a bit.

You know, if you sport a KLM picture on your profile, I can see why you support SN in its current form and why you would prefer that SN doesn't expand.

But face it, Amsterdam is a boerengat. There is nothing North, nothing West, nothing East of Amsterdam.
Amsterdam is literally what one could call the terminal station of a line.
It's not even convenient for cargo, as it's far from all the main markets.

How they manage to run such a big airport out of middle of nowhere? The Dutch, like the Germans, understand the concept of "steal from neighbors to better your own". You see this literally in every aspect of how they conduct business.
Rotterdam port has risen on the back of Antwerp, by upgrading their infrastructure and stealing the business that has taken Antwerp centuries to build, in just a few years. Hamburg is following.
Dutch construction companies are all over Flanders, underbidding Belgian construction companies on about every large project. Half of the Antwerp hotels are in Dutch hands and the number in Brussels is rising. The former Sofitel/Pullman, now Golden Tulip Brussels Airport, is now in Dutch hands.
Now even the Belgian workforce has to compete against a Dutch invasion who accept to work on precarious contracts for the same money.
The Dutch have ambition, or rather, a survival instinct. The Belgians are letting them walk all over themselves.

SN is no exception.

[RoMax]

You know, if you sport a KLM picture on your profile, I can see why you support SN in its current form and why you would prefer that SN doesn't expand.

Rest assured, I have nothing to do with KLM (but who knows... ;p ) it was just a good fitting picture for an avatar I had from AMS. Not everyone's avatar is that meaningful. If you base your comments on that...

But face it, Amsterdam is a boerengat. There is nothing North, nothing West, nothing East of Amsterdam.
Amsterdam is literally what one could call the terminal station of a line.
It's not even convenient for cargo, as it's far from all the main markets.

AMS might have dropped to the 5th place in terms of bussiest airports in Europe, look at transfer traffic and they end up higher. Amsterdam is not convenient for cargo? Is that why the 'Port of Amsterdam' (which includes a few small ports around Amsterdam besides the actual port of Amsterdam) is the 4th busiest in Europe in terms of cargo tonnage while being right besides Rotterdam (and don't say it's because Rotterdam doesn't have enough space, if they want they make half of the Netherlands the Port of Rotterdam)?! And is that why AMS is the 3rd busiest cargo airport in Europe (and 16th worldwide) after FRA and CDG?!

Amsterdam certainly isn't the biggest market in Europe, but calling it a "boerengat" says more about you than about Amsterdam. No reason to act like calimero saying they became big by stealing our market... They becaome big by being smart yes, smarter than Belgium yes, but you are talking about a battle that was actually already lost decades if not centuries ago. Stop talking about the past, come back to reality.

[Passenger]

RoMax, don't feed the troll too much...

[Flanker2]

You may believe that if it suits you, but no battle is lost, that's ridiculous.
The Dutch invasion is coming over the Belgian borders as we speak, but how far will it go?

Actually even SN is seeig increasing number of Dutch employees in all departments!

I don't think that it's about smarter or more stupid. The Dutch have ambition and that is really the only thing they have going for themselves. The way they do business may seem smarter to themselves but at the end of the day and in the big picture, they are no match to big nations like Germany or France, even if they "steal some small chickens" here and there.
Belgium and especially Flanders is being lazy and letting themselves get walked over by about everyone, and most by their Dutch neighbors.

Ambition is a state of mind, so if Flanders/Belgium wakes up and stops giving the Dutch their way, they tide can turn in no time. Amsterdam isn't much business friendlier than Brussels. In fact, if you would justify Amsterdam's success on that, then Luxembourg airport would be bigger than AMS.
Dutch talent is fleeing away due to idiotic fiscal policies.

Amsterdam is well situated? What's next? Are you going to try to make us believe that the sun revolves around the Earth?
I don't even care if Amsterdam has many ports situated close to the airport. Time-sensitive air freight doesn't transfer onto sea freight, there is no point in that. Amsterdam is not well situated for road transport. It's at the corner of Europe, far away from all cities.
The only reason that AMS is such a huge cargo hub is because they're slicking the extra distances and making it work, simply by shear size.

If tomorrow SN and BRU start investing as part of a common Belgium strategy to become a world player, the Netherlands will be cut off in no time. But Belgium has become accustomed to milking easy taxes from the dominant middle class, so it will take a big wake up call to bring any changes.

[Stij]

Let's stick to the topic: Brussels Airlines and it's future. Not about our neighbors!

Thank-you!

Stij

[Flanker2]

A cold reminder of what transpired in 2001...
Are we going to get a déja-vu?

17 August 2001
(...)The Swissair group has shelved its plans to become a majority shareholder in Sabena and will continue to retain a minority shareholding of 49.5 percent. The Belgian government will remain the major shareholder in Sabena.

http://www.travelweekly-asia.com/Travel ... t-of-Tokyo

Or will LH be true to their word that if SN runs a profit in 2015, it would buy SN.
If not, are the other shareholders going to sit idly by until 2017, when the options expire?

[sn26567]

Brussels Airlines welcomed 6,608,867 passengers in 2014 (+ 757,749) - the strongest growth since founding. More to follow...

[Inquirer]

More to follow...

According to De Tijd:
intra-European passengers: 5,6M
Africa: 752K
USA: 223K
Loadfactor increased to 72% (69% last year)

http://www.tijd.be/detail.art?a=9587275&n=3085&ckc=1

[Stij]

Load factor increased to 72% (69% last year)

Great that the load factor improved to 71%, but compared to the AEA average of 81% it remains rather low, or do I read these numbers wrong?

http://www.airportsinternational.com/20 ... 2014/16314

Cheers,

Stij

[RoMax]

Load factor increased to 72% (69% last year)

Great that the load factor improved to 71%, but compared to the AEA average of 81% it remains rather low, or do I read these numbers wrong?

SN always had a really low loadfactor compared to the industry average, that was already the case in the Sabena period. I remember years where SN was in the mid/high-50's while the AEA average was in the mid/high-70's, and that's not that long ago. SN is closing the gap each year, but there still is a big difference for sure.

Though it has to be said that loadfactor is not always the best measure for financial performance. And in case of SN it is good to look at the growth of the average seat capacity of their aircraft. A 70% LF on an A319 is better than 70% on an Avro at equal yields.

[sn26567]

Brussels Airlines welcomed 6,608,867 passengers in 2014 (+ 757,749) - the strongest growth since founding. More to follow...

And the full figures are here: https://www.aviation24.be/airlines_press_r ... gers-2014/

It is not the 7 million that were forecast last week, even when counting the charter passengers (250,000 to 275,000 in my estimate), but it is a healthy increase. Let's see now how this translates in turnover and profit/loss.

[crew1990]

Not sure it has been already reported but Brussels Airlines will operates a couple of flight for Sunweb summer to Mallorca, Heraklion, Monastir and Antalya.

[RoMax]

SN's overall increase in loadfactor in 2014 has been awarded on an individual route basis, SN won the award for 'Highest Load Factor Growth - Full Service Carrier' at the 8th Annual Budapest Airport Awards Ceremony. Rynair won the same award in the LCC category.

http://www.airport-business.com/2015/02 ... -ceremony/

[Boeing767copilot]

Traffic figures January

pax: 429.820 (+ 4,6%)
ASK: - 2,9
RPK: - 3,2
LF: 63,6% (-0,2 pct point)

[RoMax]

They mention a growth of 8.3% in Europe, but they don't talk about Africa and US. I assume it was a slow month for long haul, both in capacity (given the lower ASK, which I don't assume to be negative in Europe) and performance (decrease in RPK is slightly more significant compared to decrease in ASK resulting in slightly lower loadfactor, also here I assume this being caused mainly by long haul, having a bigger influence on these RPK/ASK numbers)

Another thing that makes me think that long haul caused January to be a rather slow month (compared to what we have seen in 2014) is the decrease in freight ton-kilometres of over 10%. Less capacity in long haul, causes an immediate significant effect on cargo and possibly also rather low demand maybe? (but that's difficult to determine with just these numbers)

https://www.aviation24.be/airlines_press_r ... -airlines/

January doesn't seem to be a big month for many European airlines, I see a lot of status-quo's (I see it like that if it's between -1% to +1%) or slightly better (or worse).

[tolipanebas]

JAN was a heavy maintenance month for the A330 fleet at SN: several planes went to LIS for that purpose and thus long haul capacity was reduced as a consequence vs last year (as also reflected in the lower ASK/RSK figures, despite SN operating more EUR flights this winter).

The figures for EUR show SN has no problem continuing on the growth path of last year and you'll see this trend reaffirmed more clearly in the figures for FEB and the months thereafter, once all planes (as well as 3 additional A32F) are back in the sky ...

Not everybody is stagnating at BRU this summer, you know?

[theeuropean]

Does anyone know how the forward bookings are looking for the new destinations? I'm interested in particular the St. Petersburg route as I want to go and visit a friend in the spring holidays! (And Billund as I'm part Danish) but in general it would be nice to know how they all are doing

Cheers,

Max

[crew1990]

I heard that the booking for Lourdes and Calvi was excellent, and i guess the rest as well.