Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

[ezis_bis]

It has nothing to do with FR or SN ... if Ryanair would be flying there I would say exactly the same ... and I for one would NOT be crewing any of these flights.

Fair enough
My brother does, he doesn't mind

[Inquirer]

It has nothing to do with FR or SN ... if Ryanair would be flying there I would say exactly the same ... and I for one would NOT be crewing any of these flights.

Which I entirely understand: however, as others have meanwhile shown, they are willing to do so.

In case of Ebola coming to Europe -something it will if this isn't taken on massively-, I am pretty sure nobody is going to stop serving any of those European Ebola countries then, just as nobody halted flights to SARS countries either, so the choice of whether to crew any such flights might come your way sooner than you think.

Another remark: I am not minimizing the risk at all like flanker has said, I am being pragmatic in understanding that it makes no difference whatsoever to our public health in Europe whether there are flights operating to Ebola countries or not as this disease will make it to Europe on foot (or rubber boat) if needed: you can't isolate tens of millions of Africans for months in a row and you can't close of Europe either: the unstopable immigration stream through Lampedusa and Melilla has shown that, I should think.
The personal health risk is something everybody must judge for himself when accepting to crew a flight, but all I can say is that if everybody runs away, then we will run out of places to hide in in the end, so I'd be very reluctant to snub anybody willing to do this, quite on the contrary even.

Other than that, everything has been said at least 10 times now, so what's the point other than to spend another day of throwing mud at each other from behind (y)our PC? I for one am going to leave this discussion for what it is, because there are way too much emotions, irrational thinking and impulsive solutions to still have any meaningful discussion, something clearly demonstrated over the past few days.
To some, screaming and shouting may be their trade mark around here, but it's definitely not mine.

[Passenger]

Oh my god .... For the 600th time .... It has NOTHING to do with SN! If this is the reason that you are so naive in this whole ebola story, then you really need to sort your priorities.

There is only one way to avoid that ebola spreads to Europe and other continents: stop it from spreading in West Africa and cure all those who are infected/contaminated. That is the reason way all relevant health authorities insist that airlines continue to fly to the region: more staff is needed, more medicins are needed, more material is needed. One cargo aircraft (like the one from AMS tomorrow) is great, but it's not enough: there must be a constant flow of medical deliveries and a constant traffic of medical volunteers.

Those who deny the principle that ebola will spread worldwide if it's not countered in West Africa are narrowminded. Or they have a hidden agenda. Or both.

[sean1982]

Which can ALL be provided by coordinated medical relief flights .... and in the mean time by halting commercial traffic the risk of spreading to europe and other parts of the world will be reduced by MINIMUM 50% as calculated by the university of boston.

And too think that SN and RAM fly there pure out of humanitarian goodwill (whilst exposing their staff, passengers and even their countries to possible contamination) THAT is narrowminded!

[Inquirer]

by halting commercial traffic the risk of spreading to europe and other parts of the world will be reduced by MINIMUM 50% as calculated by the university of boston.

Final remark from me:

I know it's counterintuitive, but when you half you change on something unavoidable, it still is unavoidable and so the finality hasn't changed. (*)
In other words: it's not a very good solution to rely on statistics to guide you on this, as statistics are deceptive tools to be guided by, a mistake many people make in their daily lives too when they do something because they think chances are better that way for them, while the outcome is in fact fixed from the start.

(*) If you dont understand what I am saying: t's like halving the number of bullets when playing russian roulette, while still firing all the shots against your head. In the end you're dead anyway, despite having halved the chances.

[airazurxtror]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nati ... /16914661/

Extract:

Travelers from West Africa arriving at five large airports in the U.S. will have their temperature taken and face questions about their health in an effort to prevent the spread of Ebola, federal officials said Wednesday.

Customs and Border Protection will begin the stricter screening Saturday at New York's John F. Kennedy Airport and next week at New Jersey's Newark, Washington's Dulles, Chicago's O'Hare and Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson. Travelers from Ebola hot spots in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea will receive greater scrutiny.

Josh Earnest, a White House spokesman, said the airports receive about 150 travelers per day from the three countries. The five airports receive 94% of the travelers from those West African countries, he said.

[Passenger]

"... We don’t need to stop all travel from these countries. It’s going to be impossible to stop people. The way to stop the flow of patients from these countries getting to the rest of the world is to have programmes that will treat people and increase survival dramatically. It’s possible."

“... We need to have quality services in place so that the motivation to leave these countries goes away. It is a rational thing to do to get away because we don’t have the treatment in place.”

Rudimentary healthcare systems in the three west African countries have encouraged people to travel abroad for treatment, thereby spreading the virus. Before the crisis, Liberia had 61 doctors and 1.000 nurses, while Sierra Leone had 327 hospital beds.

These are quotes from an interview with Jim Kim, president of the World Bank, in today's The Guardian:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... im-failure

[sn-remember]

Another remark: I am not minimizing the risk at all like flanker has said, I am being pragmatic in understanding that it makes no difference whatsoever to our public health in Europe whether there are flights operating to Ebola countries or not as this disease will make it to Europe on foot (or rubber boat) if needed: you can't isolate tens of millions of Africans for months in a row and you can't close of Europe either: the unstopable immigration stream through Lampedusa and Melilla has shown that, I should think.
The personal health risk is something everybody must judge for himself when accepting to crew a flight, but all I can say is that if everybody runs away, then we will run out of places to hide in in the end, so I'd be very reluctant to snub anybody willing to do this, quite on the contrary even.

Pragmatic or fatalist ?
My line of thought is different. I think there are urgent actions to take now in order to hopefully limit the impact of this epidemic. I know some actors are on the spot but it is a drop in the ocean.
It's false to pretend "tens of millions of Africans" are targetted for the moment, Liberia as a whole is 4 millions peoople and only a very tiny proportion of them is eligible to travel. So in this context it's worth considering to limit the extension of the epidemic through transport limitation, at least try it. Which you discard with skepticism. BTW don't fool yourself, no single country at present delivers an entry visa from Liberia/guinea/SierraLeone. The list is not exhaustive.
Of course if nothing is done preventively, it can indeed grow to quite bigger numbers, but who would want that ? Some African countries being in FIRST line are taking drastic measures to try stop the contagion to their country. Are you blaming them ?
Just to name a few: Senegal has closed its borders with Guinea, Cameroon has done the same with Nigeria, Ivory Coast closes border with Ghana (yes !) and Liberia of course etc ..
On the airline front we have the same picture .. KQ, BA, etc .. many airlines cease operations to rob, surely more to come (airlines and destinations) ... But as everybody here knows, rob,cky,fna are small markets with already few air connections, on the export front let's try keep the risks contained.
What is important to stress is that IMHO such measures can only be to some degree effective if taken at the very begining of the epidemic, (as is assistance and education on the spot crucial but that's beyond our scope).

Other than that, everything has been said at least 10 times now, so what's the point other than to spend another day of throwing mud at each other from behind (y)our PC? I for one am going to leave this discussion for what it is, because there are way too much emotions, irrational thinking and impulsive solutions to still have any meaningful discussion, something clearly demonstrated over the past few days.
To some, screaming and shouting may be their trade mark around here, but it's definitely not mine.

Of course the topic is far from dried up, there is and will be a lot to be discussed in the future, as the situation is monitored and reviewed on a daily basis and I am sure you will participate. As I assume you do, I like discussing, meaning in a civilised way.
The virus is not so well known and might have mutations, the epidemiologic model is still controversial,
the measures put in place to fight its spreading are still in the limbs and the airlink question is just a small peace of the puzzle. But in this forum it's the one of priority it seems and it's understandable ...
Personally I think it's a MINIMUM demand to screen all pax again upon landing in bru, give them a leaflet describing the risk they carry, the disease characteristics and prophylaxie rules (which are more stringent than some want to believe). For instance did you know that you still can transmit the disease 7 weeks after you were blessed to be cured ? Those infected should be put in quarantine, the tracing of possible contagion is required needing some tight supervision management. SN should request ASAP these measures to be taken direct upon landing.
I respect the recent decision of Willie Walsh to stop operations from now on until things are more controlled.

[sn26567]

Nurse, 57, isolated in hospital in Cairns, Australia, with suspected ebola after returning from Sierra Leone.

Source: BBC

[Passenger]

Nurse, 57, isolated in hospital in Cairns, Australia, with suspected ebola after returning from Sierra Leone.

Source: BBC

Seems her temperature hasn't risen above 37.6° C so far, so it's not certain yet that it's ebola.

Confirmation (Y/N) will follow very soon.

[Bralo20]

What about our university hospitals that claim they are not prepared for ebola patients? Leuven has place for 2!! cases

MSF has its training centre in Brussels, where all their doctors and nurses are trained to handle Ebola cases under the same conditions as in Africa. Sure they can handle several cases simultaneously.

While maybe not mentioned in the press it seems that Belgium has (quietly?) taken some measurements to deal with Ebola. In the Military Hospital, Queen Astrid in NOH near BRU, there's a part of the hospital prepared to deal with Ebola. According to my information NOH will be the primary location which will treat Ebola patients.

[sn26567]

UK Ebola case feared after British man dies in Macedonia

A British man suspected of having contracted Ebola has died in Macedonia. The UK Foreign Office said it was urgently investigating the reports.

A British citizen travelling with the unnamed man said they had not been to any areas affected by the deadly virus, a Macedonian government spokesman said.

It comes as the UK government announced arrivals from Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia would face "enhanced screening" at Heathrow, Gatwick and Eurostar terminals.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29559444

[cathay belgium]

Hi,

Avgeektrip in Skopje Macedonia !

Two luchtzakmembers in quarantaine for four hours in the ebola-hotel ! ( air belgium! )

Two luchtzakmembers quite worried,but sky is clear now... ( quixoticguide and cxb )

A night to remember !

CXB

[sn26567]

Airline cleanup crews walk off job in New York over Ebola concerns

About 200 airline cabin cleaners walked off the job at New York's LaGuardia Airport on Thursday to protest what they say is insufficient protection from exposure to Ebola for workers whose jobs include cleaning up vomit and bathrooms.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/ ... 1J20141009

[sn26567]

Avgeektrip in Skopje Macedonia !

Two luchtzakmembers in quarantaine for four hours in the ebola-hotel ! ( air belgium! )

Two luchtzakmembers quite worried,but sky is clear now... ( quixoticguide and cxb )

A night to remember !

it is "very unlikely" a British man who died in Macedonia on Thursday could have contracted the disease.

The unnamed man was admitted to hospital at 15:00 local time (14:00 BST) and died two hours later.

He had been vomiting, had a fever and was bleeding internally.

There were "high chances" it was not an Ebola case.

But in a statement it said officials had followed World Health Organization procedure in closing the hotel where the man was staying and placing the residents in quarantine.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29559444

[FlightMate]

October 8th, US airways 845, phili to punta cana, a passenger sneezed and told he could have Ebola, as he came back from Africa.

Man was joking, but neverthess:
http://youtu.be/LJhWVsx1U8c

[Passenger]

On 08th October, Australia's state radio ABC had an interview with Dr. Claude Thibeault, medical advisor IATA, on ebola:

Source page:
http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/content/s4102531.htm

Link to audio:
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/newsradio/a ... 676235.mp3

[sean1982]

New security concern: Ebola terrorist ... in other words people using themselves as a biological weapon, travelling to ebola countries to pick up the virus there and then fly onwards to infect as many people as possible. Need another reason to stop commercial flights?

As the symbolic centre of europe Brussels would be a good start and unfortunatly most easy to reach!

http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/960/Buitenland ... rist.dhtml

[sn-remember]

The epidemiological model seems to be exponential ..
I don't think it will extinguish easily without drastic measures taken like isolation, quarantine and protection of the people in charge. Plus education. That's for the epicenter.
Cutting contacts like most African states do seems the sensible thing to do for the time being.
Protecting the entries like is done in the US and the UK (elsewhere also and in particular Marocco) should be strictly appplied in the EU too.
Why so much apparent unprofessionalism in the EU for dealing with a serious public health threat ?

[SN1203]

Looking at some of the postings above, I see a load of crap again, as usual posted by people who have no clue (and not surprisingly the whole Ryanair lobby using every opportunity to bash SN).

The situation is quite simple: you can’t stop people from travelling (has anybody mentioned actually that most people are flying on Royal Air Maroc?), and international flights are needed to transport cargo and medical staff.

I see people (not surprisingly always the same moaners) mentioning SN is doing this “because SN is desperately looking for money”. A simple calculation would learn you these flights can’t be as profitable as you wrongly assume they are. You can be happy today if you carry half of the passengers to these destinations you had before. Do you really think people are paying on average double the ticket price now to compensate for the reduced traffic?

I for one applaud SN for not deserting Africa, even when it gets tough. And I applaud the crews as well, even though there’s no real danger for them as a passenger who is ill (and consequently contagious) just wouldn’t be able to board a flight.