Brussels Airlines' loadfactor

[Atlantis]

If cargo to Africa will be more important then pax than they have to buy or lease some freighters, but I know what you mean, don't worry.

A loadfactor of 58% is not only terrible but it is a serious situation. We all knew that SN was decreasing its capacity with 10% the last year.

But more important: what can they do? It is cristal clear that their current fleet is to big for SN.
A330 to Africa: Ok
A319 to Moscow, Tel Aviv and other important destinations: ok

The B737 and Avro's are to big on most of their routes. I hope that they will take a wise decision this year about their future European fleet.

[RoMax]

Replacement for the B737's must be A319's in the first years (132 seats in A319, 142 in B733 and 164 in B734). If A319's would replace the 737's that would increase their loadfactor already.
Replacement for the Avro's: I think they should pick the Embraer ERJ's and the majority of the replacement ERJ-170/175 and a smaller part ERJ-190. If they make the interior comfortable, the ERJ-170/175's would have around 5/15 seats less than a RJ85.
And I think that is still to big for some SN routes if they want to offer multiple daily frequenties (more than 2)(Bristol, Newcastle, Strasbourg...).

After a few years they can maybe think about bigger airplanes (A320/A321) for routes like Moscow, Tel Aviv...

[DannyVDB]

A loadfactor of 58% is not only terrible but it is a serious situation. We all knew that SN was decreasing its capacity with 10% the last year.

Hi Atlantis and others. I agree that a load factor of 58.0 is not good, even if this is for the month of November.

However, the reason why is clear: they have put more capacity in and have flown more:

[Also the fact that SN has relatively limited traffic on long haul affects this LF]

ASK change: +7.9% - indicator of capacity
RPK change: +3.9% - indicator of flow passengers

ASK = Available Seat-Kilometres (millions): The product of the total number of seats offered and of the corresponding stage distances (great circle)
RPK = Revenue Passenger-Kilometres Flown (millions): The product of the total number of revenue passengers on all of the routes under consideration and of the corresponding stage distances (great circle)

Regards,
Danny

[FLYAIR10]

(132 seats in A319, 142 in B733 and 164 in B734). If A319's would replace the 737's that would increase their loadfactor already.

If loadfactor is that low, and as a "quick win", why don't they throw out 12-18 seats from the B733 and B734?
Advantages : less weight (= less fuel burn) and more comfort for passengers due to increased seat-pitch.
After all how many SN 737 flights/day(week) would be flying at full 100% capacity?
Maybe the same (remove 5-10 seats) could done with some of the ARJ85 who are serving the less popular destinations anyway.
Or is this not technically not possible or operationally too complicated?
Just wondering...
Grtz

[DannyVDB]

I think it is a little bit more complicated.

Just to give one example: a plane is doing e.g. BRU-FCO and then coming back FCO-BRU. You might have a full plane when going to FCO, but almost empty when returning (or the other way around). If you downgrade capacity this also affects the full flight (and so maybe losing pax).

There might be other issues ...

Danny

[tolipanebas]

I think it is a little bit more complicated.

Just to give one example: a plane is doing e.g. BRU-FCO and then coming back FCO-BRU. You might have a full plane when going to FCO, but almost empty when returning (or the other way around). If you downgrade capacity this also affects the full flight (and so maybe losing pax).

There might be other issues ...

Danny

It's no secret this is the core of SN's issue with its load factors, i.e. a very unequal spread of capacity needs throughout the day and even the week. Mondays and Fridays are traditionally good days and so are Saturdaymornings and Sundayevenings, but midweeks and midweekends see much lower loads and planes need to be filled up with connecting pax then.

However, due to the very limited long haul network (all of which is concentrated around morning departures), the appeal of SN isn't very high with connecting pax and regardless, as from noon connecting pax and loadfactors go down. A similar pattern can be seen at other smallish airlines with fairly modest long haul networks, so it is not something unique to SN, quite on the contrary even, it is a very typical phenomenon for this kind of airlines....

The key to solving this issue is not so much to massively shrink capacity on the European network (that's just a cosmetic solution), but rather to grow the long haul network and to offer long haul flights throughout the day (not just the morning), so the European network can feed it throughout the day.

Adding a 5th long haul plane will thus contribute positively to the load factors on European fligths (at least during the morning) and it might be worth to consider serving some future long haul destinations in the evening: for instance an evening NYC flight....

[brusselsairlinesfan]

'hope the loadfactor will rise soon...

[RoMax]

Finally the full year numbers. But first December only.

Loadfactor: 61.1% (+0.5%)
Pax: 327 800 (+ 1.7%) (capacity up with 3.1%, traffic up with 3.9%)
Freight: 5.6 (-8.5%)

Now the full year results:

Loadfactor: 62.7% (-0.5%) (the average for all AEA members was -0.3%)
Pax: 4 679 900 (-8.4%) (the average for all AEA members was -5.8%)
(capacity down with 6.2%, traffic down with 7.0%)
Freight: 87.3 (-6.0%) (the average for all AEA members was -16.5%)

So SN is a good student on the freight part (probably because AFI), but a lower than average student on the rest.

[regi]

and most important : profit ? ( it is a company )

[Conti764]

and most important : profit ? ( it is a company )

Probably like every year, I guess?

A loss on the European network, compensated by the profit in Africa, due to strong yields en cargo ops.

[tolipanebas]

A loss on the European network, compensated by the profit in Africa, due to strong yields en cargo ops.

I have a very strong feeling this time however, the loss on the European network will not be compensated in full by the positive results on long haul operations though...

[RoMax]

and most important : profit ? ( it is a company )

This are official AEA numbers, that has nothing to do with the financial results of the AEA members.
And I think you have to wait a bit longer for these financial numbers. The official press release of SN about the 2008 results was released in April 2009(!). So I think we have to wait again until March/April before we know the financial results of SN in 2009.

[RoMax]

It is now already 10 March, so I suppose the AEA numbers for January must be known already altoug I didn't see an official press release yet.
But does anyone know the AEA numbers for SN for January 2010? (Loadfactor, pax, freight...)

[LJ]

It is now already 10 March, so I suppose the AEA numbers for January must be known already altoug I didn't see an official press release yet.
But does anyone know the AEA numbers for SN for January 2010? (Loadfactor, pax, freight...)

The January numbers are already known (from the excel sheet)
Pax 312,500 (+8.1%)
LF 54.0% (-2.0%)
FTK 7,614,000 (+29%)

[RoMax]

It is now already 10 March, so I suppose the AEA numbers for January must be known already altoug I didn't see an official press release yet.
But does anyone know the AEA numbers for SN for January 2010? (Loadfactor, pax, freight...)

The January numbers are already known (from the excel sheet)
Pax 312,500 (+8.1%)
LF 54.5% (-2.0%)
FTK 7,614,000 (+29%)

Maybe a stupid question, but where can you find/download that excel sheet?

Edit: I've just found it.

[fretn]

that loadfactor is terrible!

[diminbru]

that loadfactor is terrible!

yes but excellent pax and FTK figures, above averages

(I see the glass half full )

[fcw]

that loadfactor is terrible!

yes but excellent pax and FTK figures, above averages

(I see the glass half full )

The only problem is that in aviation half a glass is not enough...
If the loadfactor doesn't increase significantly, I am afraid the end is near for BruAir!
LH doesn't want to fill botomless cups or should I say glasses, ask BD!

[fretn]

one question.
how come the load factor doesn't rise with more passengers?
thx

[diminbru]

that loadfactor is terrible!

yes but excellent pax and FTK figures, above averages

(I see the glass half full )

The only problem is that in aviation half a glass is not enough...
If the loadfactor doesn't increase significantly, I am afraid the end is near for BruAir!
LH doesn't want to fill botomless cups or should I say glasses, ask BD!

Don't worry, LH is happy with their investment. LF can be easily solved with reducing capacity. Higher pax and cargo isn't that easy to achieve !!!
and then the glass is half full again, and not half empty