Couldn’t help checking a few things, trying to recap this story.
TK flies daily IST-JIB-MGQ-JIB-IST, leaving IST shortly after midnight. Arriving Djibouti at 06:10L, leaving for Mogadishu at 07:15.
On 02 FEB, TK did not fly the JIB-MGQ leg.
The flight arrived well at 05:44 in JIB but remained there for 7 hours until planned time for the return to IST where it arrived at 18:11L, 16 minutes late.
Must have been a small technical problem that prevented it to fly to Mog and back. 2 ½ hours after her arrival in IST, the same TC-JAI took-off for DUS.
On the other hand, per FlightStats.com, on 02FEB the Daallo (D3) first flew from Jeddah to Mogadishu as D3169, supposedly a direct flight, with STD 04:00L and STA 11:45L.
As JED and MGQ are in the same time zone, this makes a 7h45 flight. Strooong headwinds for a 1230nm (straight line) flight.
Actually, per FR24, D3 flew the same JED-MGQ on 29JAN in four hours, STD 04:00, STA 08:00.
There is no FR24 coverage of the area so just a guess from my side but methinks the JED-MGQ flight on 02FEB made a stopover in Djibouti, which is a “hub” for Daallo, probably to pick up the Mog-bound Pax from TK.
If this is the case, TK reacted very fast to have D3 performing this JIB-MGQ-JIB on their behalf as such short notice.
It is on the way back to JIB as D3159 that the explosion took place, supposedly shortly after 11:00L.
At that time, TK would have been midway (and hence at high altitude) as their STD in MGQ is 10:25, STA 12:25 in JIB.
That TC-JAI went tech on that morning, forcing them to wet-lease the Daallo A321 was very fortunate indeed.
Yes, sometimes you must have a bit of luck.
It reminds me that Friday is Euromillion day.
H.A.