Airbus to launch A321NEO-LR with 3900NM TATL range

[OO-ITR]

no it looks correct
4 rows C class and 22 Y class

but this is the A320...

[sn-remember]

no it looks correct
4 rows C class and 22 Y class

but this is the A320...

Did you have a look at the design range displayed data

[RoMax]

SN has no money for brand new A321's

Actually, in some cases it's not point of 'having enough money'. It's about having the right business case and finding the right financing structure. As long as SN can earn enough money with such aircraft, they could arrange financing for these aircraft.

Look for example how many airlines order aircraft and than never 'own' them, because of sale-and-leaseback constructions where they sell the aircraft the same day as they took contractual delivery of it and lease them instead of owning them. But there are many many more possible financial constructions, as long as you have a solid business case for these aircraft (because of course you will still have to pay (a lot) more than when just leasing older aircraft, so you need higher operating margins).

Does anyone know if SN needs to wait for the arrival of the LR version to fly to some of their West African destinations? Like DKR, BJL, CKY ...

I can't give a source to back this, but from what I know, SN (together with LH) considered the A320 family for its African network as recently as 2013/2014 and concluded that it wouldn't be the correct choice (from what I heared). Maybe this A321neo-LR version changes something about that, maybe not.

[Flanker2]

I didn't do a torough search though, just based myself on the doh-gva flight QR operates using the presumably fully loaded A320.

The A320 is a shorthaul aircraft.
It has the least range of the 3 A320 models, because it just has a very low MTOW.


Whether the current generation A321 would be able to do Africa?
Yes with auxiliary tanks all the way to ABJ, covering 60-70% of SN's network.
The NEO in this higher gross weight variant and with additional tanks will be able to cover 90% of SN's network, excluding only NBO.

Regarding your graph SN-Remember, I actually posted it a while ago in the narrowbody forum.
There is just an error in it in the A332 column.
Being an aviation man, I just know an A332 can't do the same 1000NM trip with only 50% more fuel.

Just do the math:
3400 USG x 3,8 l/USG x 0,8 kg/litre / 155 minutes x 60 min. / hour
= 4 tons per hour exactly.
The A332 really burns more like 6 tons per hour in the 293 pax configuration.

The correct figure in USG is thus 5100 USG

The A321 is also underestimated there but not as much, it should be more like 2500 USG on this trip, burning closer to 3 tons per hour.

These are figures that I have studied myself, using Airbus published data in the FCOM's, which are quite accurate.

Trip cost per seat becomes 91 versus 74.

In reality, the CASM comparison here shows that the A321 has 19% lower CASM than the A332.
Now, considering that the NEO is going to offer 20% lower fuel burn and maintenance cost saving and you get very close to a 30% lower CASM than the A330 or the A330 having 40% higher CASM

In addition, in SN's operations, the aircraft fly triangles such as DKR-BJL-DKR.
These are lost sectors that 2 A321's can avoid, making the A321 40% cheaper to operate the routes separetely, and the A330 60% more expensive.


If you account for fuel error:
If you look back at the table you presented, 2 A321's have approximately the same trip cost as one single A332. 2 A321's will carry 360 pax versus 293 pax. 67 additional pax for free, there's your cargo revenue.

In addition, cargo is a polarised business. More flows one way than does the other way. PAX however eventually have to go back to where they came from, generating traffic in both ways.

[sn-remember]

CASM calculation is indeed as clear as mud ...
Not saying cost analysis is a rule of the thumb (still with the right thumb it might be .., however it must be applied specifically to each case ..
The chart I mentioned (maybe I shouln't have) just gives an idea of the different pieces of the puzzle but is not a bible. It might even be confusing and outdated and maybe not accurate in several aspects.
Still, the question of comparing a:c efficiency on a given leg, for a given operator at a given moment is important. Fuel consumption is just a part of it.
A seat*mile is cheaper if operated on a distant leg and in a bigger batch bcs the marginal costs get less important. So if as you suggest the A321 consumes at least twice less fuel than the A330 does (and I believe you) it doesn't mean a double frequency A321 is equivallent (or better since 2*200=400 pax) to a single frequency cargo loaded A333 (300 pax) cost wise. But clearly the discussion is open. Let's leave it so for the moment ?
..
Regarding NATL routes, 2 models (B757 n/b and w/B) currently co-exist. The A32neolr will just be the latest and most efficient technology offered in its class, as currently is the B787 in its class.
You know EK operates the A332 to amd wheras QR operates the A320. Who is right ?
To make a long discussion short :
Both

[sn-remember]

The A320 is a shorthaul aircraft.
It has the least range of the 3 A320 models, because it just has a very low MTOW.
Whether the current generation A321 would be able to do Africa?
Yes with auxiliary tanks all the way to ABJ, covering 60-70% of SN's network.
The NEO in this higher gross weight variant and with additional tanks will be able to cover 90% of SN's network, excluding only NBO.

Concerning the ceo :
For the A319, as you know the LR version features an extremely low seat count.. thus we will not consider it as it is a business long range jet.
The A319 longest route currently operated would be DOH-LHR if wiki is correct wich is just a few nm's more than the already discussed bah-lhr.
As for the A321, the longest route would be according to wiki hel-dxb.
Finnair’s configuration for A321 Sharklet on this route is 209 seats in all-Economy class cabin, replacing Boeing 757.
SN could try operating the same equipment to AFI if they wished (although I'm sure they would want to offer a 2 class cabin), possibly subject to load restriction though. Dkr and bjl would be ok.
HEL (60°19'02"N 24°57'48"E) DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E) 135.5° (SE) 2450 nm
BRU (50°54'05"N 4°29'04"E) CKY (9°34'37"N 13°36'43"W) 206.3° (SW) 2631 nm
BRU (50°54'05"N 4°29'04"E) ABJ (5°15'41"N 3°55'35"W) 191.7° (S) 2764 nm
BRU (50°54'05"N 4°29'04"E) DLA (4°00'22"N 9°43'10"E) 172.8° (S) 2819 nm
--
The NEO might indeed be able to cover west afi as a whole, and the lr version for east afi + natl routes.
Question remains : what strategy for sn ? Not sure I want to discuss it but it would be in another topic anyways

[cnc]

lets just see if SN makes it in to 2015 first. things look pretty grimm at the moment imo

[Passenger]

SN has no money for brand new A321's

Same applies for Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in Africa. But then: look at LAM Linhas Aereas De Mocambique's 2 brand new E190's (-1).

Same applies for Bangladesh: income per capita (2013) 1.044 USD. But then: look at their brand new 777's.

Actually, SN has more then enough money to buy/lease a A321 - that is, if they would want to do so. All one needs is some cash (which they have) and a letter of credibility from the bank (which they have).

lets just see if SN makes it in to 2015 first. things look pretty grimm at the moment imo

Euh, any real indication for that prediction, apart from an acid gut feeling?

[airazurxtror]

In a few years time, when Philippine Airlines or Beloutchistan Airways will get rid of theirs ....

[cnc]

Euh, any real indication for that prediction, apart from an acid gut feeling?

i honestly hope my friends at SN are exaggerating about the situation because my last post is what they say, not me.

[Passenger]

Euh, any real indication for that prediction, apart from an acid gut feeling?

i honestly hope my friends at SN are exaggerating about the situation because my last post is what they say, not me.

You can tell your friends at SN they don't have to worry that much. Unless the annual account is falsified, unless Lufthansa collapses and/or unless a second 9/11 happens, there is no danger for their job. That's what I've heard from my friends at SN.

[Passenger]

Flightglobal.com: “Airbus is aiming to introduce a higher-weight version of the A321neo in early 2019, in a bid to reinforce the type’s challenge to the Boeing 757 market".
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... eo-405070/

Aerotelegraph.com: “Airbus plant einen A321 Neo mit deutlich mehr Reichweite. Damit will der Hersteller Boeing zuvorkommen, die über eine Neuversion der B757 nachdenkt.“
http://www.aerotelegraph.com/airbus-pla ... gen-boeing

Bloomberg.com: "Airbus Group has begun discussing plans with airlines for a new variant of its A321neo featuring extra fuel tanks to increase range for carriers seeking to replace Boeing 757 models on some trans-Atlantic routes."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-2 ... antic.html

Reuters.com: "Airbus Group said on Tuesday that it has begun offering airlines a long-range version of its A321neo jetliner, aimed at replacing Boeing Co's 757 jetliner, a long-range single-aisle jet that is no longer in production".
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/ ... IL20141021

Airinsight.com: "Rumors about a Boeing 757 replacement from Airbus have been swirling for months. Many industry followers have been discussing the Boeing 757 replacement “gap” – because the aircraft OEMs today tout as replacements, the A321neo and 737MAX9, don’t quite meet the bar".
http://airinsight.com/2014/10/22/airbus ... ment-news/

Airinfo.org: “Le Boeing 757-200 utilisé pour les vols transatlantiques à faible trafic aura un successeur, et ce n’est pas Boeing qui le construira, mais son rival Airbus : l’avionneur Européen travaille à un A321neo LR dont le lancement est prévu avant la fin de cette décennie."
http://airinfo.org/2014/10/22/airbus-a3 ... -200-tatl/

- - -

Strange: everyone in the world seems to agree that Airbus sees the A321neo a competitor to the 757-200, and not to the A330-300. Afaik, Brussels Airlines is no 757-200 user. So I wondered : why are the Brussels Airlines Shadow Managers here doing their upmost to proof that Brussels Airlines does need this A321neo?

And why has, so far, no one here looked deeper into the A321neo versus B757-200?

[sn-remember]

So I wondered : why are the Brussels Airlines Shadow Managers here doing their upmost to proof that Brussels Airlines does need this A321neo?

OMG ..
Pls let go with the "shadow managers" thing and let the discussion flow freely ?
BTW it's everybody's freedom to evaluate how this type would fit sn's needs (or any airline needs).. no ?
Note i've not pronounced myself, but if you want to discuss it, it would be well worth it ..with good arguments

And why has, so far, no one here looked deeper into the A321neo versus B757-200?

Pls feel free to do it ?

[Passenger]

So I wondered : why are the Brussels Airlines Shadow Managers here doing their upmost to proof that Brussels Airlines does need this A321neo?

OMG .. Pls let go with the "shadow managers" thing and let the discussion flow freely ? BTW it's everybody's freedom to evaluate how this type would fit sn's needs (or any airline needs).. no ? Note i've not pronounced myself, but if you want to discuss it, it would be well worth it ..with good arguments

Discussion? There is no discussion here. Take a look at all posts in this topic: no one discusses the initial Reuters press release that the A321neo-LR is straight competition to the B757-200. All we see is a flow of posts by Brussels Airlines Shadow Managers (yes, they are) about Brussels Airlines being unable to buy/lease new aircraft, about a zillionth calculation that A330's are outdated and too expensive, about Brussels Airlines' stupid decision to operate Africa as triangle flights, etc.

Therefore, let me try again:

- if all international experts are right that this new A321neo-ER is seen as competition for the B757 and given the fact that Brussels Airlines is not using 757's, then why did this topic became a Brussels Airlines topic?

And for those who persist that the A321neo-LR is better then the A330-300, would be great that they mention the montly lease Brussels Airlines pays for a A330-300 (not another estimate, the real figure please)

[Flanker2]

We don't need an exact figure for aircraft leasing.
I know the ballpark and that's all we need.

Feel free to discuss the B752 being replaced by the A321NLR.
What is there to say? the A321 NLR will do the same missions cheaper.
End of story.

I know you want to try to blend that part of the discussion away, but no one forces you to be part of this discussion, so feel free to skip this thread.

A question: why do you want us to end discussing the prospects of the A321NLR at SN?
What purpose would that serve?

Actually, SN has more then enough money to buy/lease a A321 - that is, if they would want to do so. All one needs is some cash (which they have) and a letter of credibility from the bank (which they have).

What you are saying is that SN doesn't want to buy or lease the perfect aircraft for their operations because it's lazy or incompetent. It's not that simple really.
They have cash? What kind of cash are we talking? The usual 100 Millions from advance bookings. And the rest from the loans? No own cash...
SN Air Holding's net assets are negative, so buying any aircraft is pretty much out of the question barring a serious investment from somewhere. Who would lend them the money to do that?
Leasing new equipment is doable, but it won't be straight-forward. Lessors are not foolish enough to blindly order a brand new aircraft in an airline-specific configuration unless they are sure they don't need to worry about payments in the first 12 years or placing the aircraft with other airlines if said company knows difficulties.

[sn26567]

And for those who persist that the A321neo-LR is better then the A330-300, would be great that they mention the monthly lease Brussels Airlines pays for a A330-300 (not another estimate, the real figure please)

You have a point here. SN is not going to buy new aircraft, for sure. Its finances are not healthy enough. And the leasing costs of a brand-new A321neo-LR are likely to be much higher than for an old A333. Now, could these higher leasing costs be offset by lower fuel costs per passenger? I leave this calculation to real SN managers...

[OO-ITR]

I don't see why SN, all of the suddon, has to buy new aircraft. They lease all their A/C (except for LTM)...

[RoMax]

I don't see why SN, all of the suddon, has to buy new aircraft. They lease all their A/C (except for LTM)...

Without saying IF they should order aircraft or not. There is a significant difference between ordering and owning. Many airlines order aircraft with the manufacturer, while they'll lease them while operating and not own them (because they sell them after taking delivery and lease them back).
You can also make an arrangement with a lessor that ordered new aircraft (or that will order them in your place, as a larger package of aircraft that also includes aircraft for other customers).

[OO-ITR]

I don't see why SN, all of the suddon, has to buy new aircraft. They lease all their A/C (except for LTM)...

Without saying IF they should order aircraft or not. There is a significant difference between ordering and owning. Many airlines order aircraft with the manufacturer, while they'll lease them while operating and not own them (because they sell them after taking delivery and lease them back).
You can also make an arrangement with a lessor that ordered new aircraft (or that will order them in your place, as a larger package of aircraft that also includes aircraft for other customers).

Yes I know how leasing works, I used to work for a leasing company

[RoMax]

Yes I know how leasing works, I used to work for a leasing company

Yes okay, so than you should also know that SN can lease when they want to order new aircraft and they don't have to 'buy' them. That was just my point. As long as there is a business case, even SN can add new aircraft to its fleet. That said, I don't see that happening soon though.