Malaysia B772 flight MH17 AMS-KUL downed near Donetsk, Ukraine

[Passenger]

For the third day on a row, Ukrain pro-Europe pro-USA government troops continue with their blind bombing of the crash region, thus prohibiting the Dutch and/or Australian forensic and/or investigation teams to visit the crash site. For the third day on a row, the Ukrain pro-Europe pro-USA governement prohibits that the last human remains on the crash site can be collected.

Even the Dutch Parliament today orders Proshenko to respect the promise he made earlier this week.

http://rt.com/news/176408-mh17-clashes- ... s-ukraine/

and

http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/mh17 ... ine__.html

[sn26567]

For the third day on a row, Ukrain pro-Europe pro-USA government troops continue with their blind bombing of the crash region

It is not blind bombing by Ukraine governmental forces, it's heavy fighting on both sides! And if Ukraine is probably supported by the EU and the US, the rebels are probably also supported by Russia (as the very recent aggravation of EU sanctions against Russia has shown this afternoon).

Let's try to remain neutral, as this is an aviation forum, not a political forum. I do not believe RT more than Fox News: both have unilateral opinions.

[Passenger]

For the third day on a row, Ukrain pro-Europe pro-USA government troops continue with their blind bombing of the crash region

It is not blind bombing by Ukraine governmental forces, it's heavy fighting on both sides!

No André, it's not "both sides" prohibiting that the Dutch investigation at the crash site can start. Last Friday, the anti-Kiev rebels made an agreement with the OVSE for a ceasefire. On Sunday, the Ukrain governement joined it. However, for the third day on a row, the Ukrain army doesn't respect it (off topic: probably because Poroshenko ordered them not to do so).

Fact is that the rebels are operating as safety escort for the Dutch and Australian teams from Donetsk towards the crash site. However, the Ukrain army bombs the nearings of the crash site - hence forcing the Dutch and Australian team to return to Donetsk.

And if Ukraine is probably supported by the EU and the US, the rebels are probably also supported by Russia (as the very recent aggravation of EU sanctions against Russia has shown this afternoon). Let's try to remain neutral, as this is an aviation forum, not a political forum. I do not believe RT more than Fox News: both have unilateral opinions.

These new EU sanctions were announced before MH17 crashed, so they proof nothing (except that the USA wants to hurt Russia financially).

On topic: my source for what is going on now near the crash site of MH-17 is not Russia Today, but Dutch press reports. I just added a RT.com-link because that's in English. The Dutch government really doesn't accept Ukrain's lies anymore. The Netherlands want that the last human remains of victims of MH-17 are recovered as a matter of extreme urgency. The Dutch press, although already convinced that the rebels have shot down the aircraft, are clear about who's prohibiting this:

http://www.ad.nl/ad/nl/1013/Buitenland/ ... eden.dhtml

http://www.volkskrant.nl/vk/nl/31522/Vl ... hten.dhtml

http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/mh17 ... ine__.html

Just one quote from De Telegraaf, probably the most anti-rebel anti Poetin pro-Kiev pro-EU Dutch newspaper: "...Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has phoned the Ukrain president on Tuesday and asked hom to stop the fighting around the crash site of MH17..."

[quixoticguide]

Emirates will start avoiding Iraqi airspace as from now as they fear insurgents from ISIL may be able to shoot down a passenger jet too.

http://www.tijd.be/nieuws/politiek_econ ... 8-3466.art

What about the Emirates flights to Baghdad, Erbil and Basra?

[Flanker2]

For the third day on a row, Ukrain pro-Europe pro-USA government troops continue with their blind bombing of the crash region

It is not blind bombing by Ukraine governmental forces, it's heavy fighting on both sides! And if Ukraine is probably supported by the EU and the US, the rebels are probably also supported by Russia (as the very recent aggravation of EU sanctions against Russia has shown this afternoon).

Let's try to remain neutral, as this is an aviation forum, not a political forum. I do not believe RT more than Fox News: both have unilateral opinions.

One thing is sure though, the separatists were willing to cooperate with the investigation. That much is certain as they handed over the recorders.
The fighting is not really on both sides as the Ukrainian government who had vowed to institue a cease-fire within a 40km diameter from the crash site is invading the region and trying to gain control of the crash site.

The Dutch are furious and are starting to realise that either Poroshenko
-A. is not in control of his army, which also puts more doubt about who really shot down MH17
-B. is a radical who is not stable, which also raises the same doubts.

I'm glad that the Dutch media have published this and perhaps it indicates that the EU and U.S. might slowly distanciate themselves from this Ukrainian government. Maybe that's what Putin is anticipating and why he's so calm despite all those accusations?

[Flanker2]

U.S. officials say Ukraine is firing on pro-Russian rebels with short-range ballistic missiles. Barbara Starr reports.

http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/v ... s.cnn.html

CNN seems criticial about the U.S. support of these actions:
"U.S. officials have confirmed what we dug out by ourselves".
"the question is why aren't we hearing so much about these missile attacks"
"U.S. is supporting a cease-fire, yet Ukraine is escalating"
"the concern is that it's Ukrainian civilians who will be caught in the middle"

Apparently the U.S. (media) is starting to realise what is going on...
This Ukrainian government are radical lunatics... who uses ballistic missiles within their own borders?

[sn26567]

A remarkable piece of investigating reporting by The Wall Street Journal. They had three journalists on site which photographed and geo-located all the debris they could find and identified most of them. Without taking sides!

http://graphics.wsj.com/mh17-crash-map/

If WSJ journalists could go and visit the site so easily, why can't official international investigators do the same?

[stratofreighter]

Without taking sides!

http://graphics.wsj.com/mh17-crash-map/

Indeed not a bad map. And indeed, they don't take sides...

[Flanker2]

According to this map, the first debris fell 35km from the supposed launch site.
Accounting for the aircraft's inertia at 900km/h and for the time it takes to break appart, the first debris would have had to drop at least 5km further from the impact area.

That puts the missile impact area outside of the range of standard BUK missiles.

-Considering that the distance was 40km at impact, the missile would have travelled 45 seconds before hitting the aircraft at 888m/s
-At the moment of launch, the aircraft was at least 45 seconds or 11km away at 250 m/s, or at least 51km from the launch site.

I doubt that a SAM can be launched outside of its range envelope.
SAM's are intended to down military aircraft that can detect these missiles and take evasive action, hence, I think that you can only lock the target once it's within 0.75 times the distance from the missile's range for slower aircraft like the SU-25, to make sure that you can down the aircraft even if it takes evasive action.

In case of faster supersonic aircraft, that range must be much smaller.

Conclusions: this launch site is impossible.

[Passenger]

Without taking sides!

http://graphics.wsj.com/mh17-crash-map/

Indeed not a bad map. And indeed, they don't take sides...

Agree : excellent work for a newspaper.

Disagree : it would only be "without taking sides" if they wouldn't have added "U.S. says missile was launched here", or if they would also have added "Russia says Ukrain Su-25 was here".

[regi]

U.S. officials say Ukraine is firing on pro-Russian rebels with short-range ballistic missiles. Barbara Starr reports.

euh, not so shocking at all. ( except for the receiving end ) It are in fact short range missiles meant for old style war.
To make it easy, from Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTR-21_Tochka

I do remember some pictures from the first war at Grozny that the rebels complained about being bombarded by missiles the size of a bus. Well, that is war.

[Homo Aeroportus]

According to this map, the first debris fell 35km from the supposed launch site....

Wrong.

Distance between Snizhne and Hrabove : 15 km
Distance between Snizhne and Rozsypne : 19 km
Distance between Snizhne and Petrpavlivka : 21 km
Distance between Snizhne and centre debris area : 17 km

Errare humanum est. I just hope it is not a deliberate attempt to deceive.

H.A.

[Flanker2]

Homo Aeroportus, I clearly said "according to this map".
Just print it out, take a ruler and measure. The map has a scale to it.

Perhaps you should review how you determined your distances or try to demonstrate that the WSJ scale is incorrect, but I'm not wrong or deceiving anybody... Perhaps you are paranoid?

[Homo Aeroportus]

Homo Aeroportus, I clearly said "according to this map".
Just print it out, take a ruler and measure. The map has a scale to it.

Perhaps you should review how you determined your distances or try to demonstrate that the WSJ scale is incorrect, but I'm not wrong or deceiving anybody... Perhaps you are paranoid?

Flanker,
Now you are disappointing me.
So you put trust in what a newspaper says? You take for granted this infographic? You did not check by yourself and find out from other sources as I thought you always do?

Before advising me to review how I determined "my" distances, why don't you do it yourself in the first place? It is called Google Earth.
Do that please and come back.

Next time may I suggest that you ask how I reached my conclusion, instead of shouting out you are right without even cross-checking your position? This is usually what open minded people do. A forum is great at that it enables an exchange of ideas. Expressing dogmatic views is just the opposite.
And as always, I stand to be corrected.

Thank you.

H.A.

[Passenger]

If the U.S. State Department is correct with it’s launch site (quid non), why would the rebels post their most sofisticated weapon so far from Donetsk, the city they need to protect? Snizhne is some 75 kms east from Donetsk, and the governement army is attacking Donetsk from the north or the west. Placing a missile launcher with a maximum range of 35 kms at 75 kms from the area one needs to defend is military spoken nonsense.

But why would we believe this “Snizhne launch site” anyway? May I remind you that the U.S. gave no satellite data, no high resolution satellite photo, no nothing for it? Yes, they showed us a Google Map scale 1/100.000 with a flechmark on it. And a video of the transport of the fatal launcher after the shooting, but that video was fake: it was made at 100 kms from the so called “launch site”.

The CIA is now operating in Ukrain for five months. So they know every square inch of Eastern Ukrain and they know exactly what weapons the rebels have and don’t have.

Possibility 1 : the CIA knew that the rebels don’t have Buks or similar weapons. Then it’s a lie that rebels have shot down MH-17.

Possibility 2 : the CIA knew that the rebels have Buks or similar weapons. Then it’s a criminal act from the CIA and USA not to have warned the international aviation community about this high risk.

Possibility 3 : the CIA knows that MH-17 is shot down by a Buks of the Ukrain government army, assuming it was a Russian fighter. Hence the fabricated “launch site near Snizhne”.

If the rebels have sofisticated surface to air missiles, why haven’t they been used before during all those months? The rebels have shot down just a few aircraft: they did it with gunfire or with shoulder-used missile launchers like I used to play with more then 30 years ago during my duty service at Bataljon Bevrijding in Leopoldsburg. If the rebels would indeed have Buks (or similar), not one single Ukrain helicopter would have been able to fly around for more then 2 minutes.

[Flanker2]

@ Homo A.: I don't really care, my assumptions are based on this map, that's exactly what it says on top of the post.
So you can tell WSJ that if they're going to publish a map, the most important thing is to get the scale right, but you can't tell me that I should check or not check, when my post says clearly "according to this map" on top.

You on the other hand, have posted IRRELEVANT (see below why) numbers from Google Earth, without mentioning that nor knowing the accuracy of Google Earth's ruler, or what points you use as reference to calculate them.
Snizhne has a diameter of 5km, so you could prove whatever you want according to the point you use as reference.

The distances you mention are irrelevant, because they are different from the parameters that I have mentioned. I have not mentioned distances between Snizhne and the cities you calculated, but distance from the launch dot on the WSJ map to the outer edge of the circle describing the field of debris, factoring in the aircraft's flight path.

Last but not least, here's the math with your numbers:
Range missile to first debris: 22km
+5km for structural failure and inertia
=27km horizontal distance from launch site to impact.

27km at 888m/s = 30 seconds
30 seconds at cruise speed of 250 m/s moving in opposite direction = 7.5 km

34.5km was distance when launched, above the range distance of the SA-11 at that altitude.
Don't forget that the aircraft was high up. The higher the altitude, the smaller the range.
The SA-11 has a range of up to 35km to hit a low-altitude aircraft.

It makes no sense to launch a SAM when the aircraft is still outside the actual range of the missile, when you know that a military aircraft such as SU-25's would be able to detect it and could maneuver away from it.
It would also give away the position of the SAM, making it vulnerable for an attack.

So either whomever was aiming at the aircraft knew they were shooting down an airliner that had no way of having a missile detection system, or that launch point is false.


@Passenger, I think that the only explanation for this site, if it is correct and considering that the rebels have indeed no reason to put a SAM there, is that it was positioned by Ukrainian forces and that they were deliberately aiming at the aircraft, knowing it was an airliner.

If the Ukraininan government shoots ballistic missiles within its territory to gain ground, why wouldn't it shoot down an airliner, blame it on the separatists and also win more ground in the subsequent batlle just as they are doing now, despite international criticism? It all makes sense to me.

[flightlover]

Flanker, you always forget that there are 3 interested parties in this conflict.

- The Separatist Ukrainians
- The Ukrainian government
- The Russian government

Just to make a very wild assumption:
Would it be impossible that the Russians have somehow disguised a missile launch vehicle in a normal truck??

With all the wild assumptions you make, backed-up by the ultra reliable Russian media, you must be open to this theory no? If you even suggest that it would be US intelligence or covert forces that shot the plane, than this must be a viable theory for you. No?

Btw, who says the Americans where even expecting a ground to air missile to be launched? Maybe that is the reason why they do not have a satellite image of this rocket being launched. Or do you really think they have a 24/7 live image feed of the entire earth?

Remember, I'm not saying it was this or that party to blame. I just suggest you keep an open mind and dare to think for yourself. You do not have to flood the forum with your reality, it is annoying.

[Flanker2]

With all the wild assumptions you make, backed-up by the ultra reliable Russian media, you must be open to this theory no?

I have not mentioned Russian media since a week or so, intentionally to avoid being accused of selling Russian propaganda.

Flanker, you always forget that there are 3 interested parties in this conflict.

- The Separatist Ukrainians
- The Ukrainian government
- The Russian government

I think that you're forgetting at least one major interested party, if not the main party, the U.S.
I remind you that while the E.U. will be hit heavily by the ongoing events and sanctions, the U.S. has only to gain from the current situation. Considering that the Netherlands is the biggest export partner of Russia by large margins, mainly in fossil fuels, what were the odds that we'd see 150 Dutch dead bodies spread over a conflict area, in pro-Russian controlled region, in Ukraine. The simplest explanation is usually the best one.

Just because I say the U.S., it doesn't mean that Obama has signed for it btw... As an example, I think that major oil multinationals may have major interests in doing that as Europe is increasingly buying from Russia.

Example of execution : How much would it cost for a few Americans who identify themselves as CIA, to ask a Ukrainian BUK crew to show them how the "system works" under the pretense that they're coming to help?
When the Ukrainian crews stop short of pulling the trigger, they pull out the guns or cash, and klaar is kees.
Other possibility, a privately funded secret UAV launching a missile on MH17 before disappearing again.

Even if Obama knows what reapply happened, I'm sure he does through the CIA unless they want to keep plausible deniability, there's no way that he will admit it to the world.
There's clearly more to this story than meets the eye and stranger things have happened.

I'm inching closer to the U.S. theory, because there's no way that Ukraine can behave so pretentiously even towards the U.S., unless they knew something that if made public, would become a scandal of unseen scale that would isolate the U.S.

[Malaysia]

Same here, reminds me of this:

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/secret-p ... saster-199

[sn26567]

Russian investigators to visit MH17 crash site as Ukraine suspends military operations in the east for a day

Russian aviation experts have arrived in the Ukrainian capital Kiev ahead of a visit to the site of the Flight MH17 crash in rebel-held territory.

Ukraine's government has called a one-day pause in military operations against pro-Russia rebels to allow investigators to reach the site.

The Russian team plans to visit the site with international colleagues and study debris there together.

More details: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28581722