Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

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Treeper
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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by Treeper »

Another mastermind has made a theory of his own:

DOHA, Qatar --
The plight of Malaysia Airlines flight 370 (MH370) is one of the biggest mysteries in aviation history, but an interdisciplinary research team led by Texas A&M University at Qatar mathematician Goong Chen has theorized the ill-fated plane plunged vertically into the southern Indian Ocean in March 2014.

The researchers' computer simulations lead to the forensic assertion that a 90-degree nosedive explains the lack of debris or spilled oil in the water near where the plane is presumed to have crashed. The research was the cover story in the April 2015 issue of Notices of the American Mathematical Society (see the team's paper here.)

Chen is an applied mathematician teaching and researching at Texas A&M at Qatar who has been a faculty member in the Department of Mathematics at Texas A&M University's main campus in College Station, Texas, USA since 1987. He led the interdisciplinary team of collaborators from Texas A&M, Penn State, Virginia Tech, MIT and the Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI) in simulating and modeling what might have happened to the plane. His research is supported by the QNRF National Priority Research Project Grant #5-674-1-114.

The researchers used applied mathematics and computational fluid dynamics to conduct numerical simulations on the RAAD Supercomputer at Texas A&M at Qatar of a Boeing 777 plunging into the ocean, a so-called "water entry" problem in applied mathematics and aerospace engineering. The team simulated five different scenarios, including a gliding water entry similar to the one Capt. Chesley B. "Sully" Sullenberger skillfully performed when US Airways flight 1549 landed in the middle of New York City's Hudson River, a feat that's referred to as "the miracle on the Hudson."

Chen said based on all available evidence -- especially the lack of floating debris or oil spills near the area of the presumed crash -- the mostly likely theory is that the plane entered the water at a vertical or steep angle.

In any rescue and recovery effort of airplane crashes in water, the look for floating debris and oil is key. For example, for the disaster of Air France's flight 447 on 1 June 2009, 3,500 pieces of floating debris have been recovered.

So, Chen wondered, why has there been no debris found at all so far for MH370?

The fluid dynamics simulations indicate, for a vertical water entry of the plane, that there would be no large bending moment, which is what happens when an external force, or moment, is applied to a structural element (such as a plane), which then causes the fuselage to buckle and break up. As the vertical water-entry is the smoothest with only small bending moment in contrast with other angles of entry, the aircraft is less likely to experience "global failure," or break-up on entry near the ocean surface, which would explain the lack of debris or oil near the presumed crash site.

Based also on the suggestions of other aviation experts, Chen said in such a situation the wings would have broken off almost immediately and, along with other heavy debris, would have sunk to the bottom of the ocean, leaving little or no trace to be spotted.

"The true final moments of MH370 are likely to remain a mystery until someday when its black box is finally recovered and decoded," Chen said. "But forensics strongly supports that MH370 plunged into the ocean in a nosedive."

Source: http://www.science.tamu.edu/news/story. ... XhCo-ckJKg

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sn26567
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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by sn26567 »

Nice theory. But it leaves no idea on where the plane has plunged into the Indian Ocean and makes the search area even larger than it is now.
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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by Homo Aeroportus »

Quoting Dr Chen : "But forensics strongly supports that MH370 plunged into the ocean in a nosedive."

Yeah, sure.
And of course the plane did not exceed Vne in its vertical dive or it would have dispersed in pieces.

And of course they were no debris nor oil spots as evidenced by the fact that the search teams have not found any, while not knowing where to look in hundreds of thousands of square kilometres and in this type of seas... :roll:
mh370-atsb-weather.jpg
mh370-atsb-weather.jpg (30.83 KiB) Viewed 8773 times
C'mon dude, even with a flat splash a la AF447, whatever was on the surface for a short time had sunk rapidly.

I don't think this kind of detailed analysis, using big brains and top computing capacity, is in anyway respectful to the families.

H.A.

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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by Passenger »

"Lithium batteries brought down MH370, says investigator".

Report (without link to the original source):

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/catego ... estigator/

regi
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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by regi »

where is the debris?

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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by sn26567 »

regi wrote:where is the debris?
The debris of a wing plane was found this morning on west coast of La Réunion (French Island).

The presence of many shells, investigators confirm that the debris remained a while in the water.

Image

An investigation was opened to determine the origin of the flight track. No track is currently preferred . Three hypotheses are nevertheless mentioned:
  • A debris from the crash of a twin-engine occurred May 4, 2006 close to the southern coast of the island.
  • A fragment of the flight MH370 Malaysia Airlines reported missing in the Indian Ocean in March 2014.
  • A piece of the A310 of Yemenia crashed off the Comoros in June 2009.
http://www.airlive.net/2015/07/breaking ... on-la.html
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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by Flanker2 »

That's an inboard aileron of a big plane for sure.
The missing trailing edge points to ditching damage rather than nose down plunging, but if that damage is an indication of the crash that occurred, there must have been survivors.

It could indeed be from MH370.

Better pictures here: http://www.zinfos974.com/St-Andre-L-ail ... 88435.html

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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

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Looking at a map of the Indian Ocean, La Réunion Island is very, very far from where search teams have been looking for MH370. I read also that some crashes were much closer to this island: a 747 and a 767, among others.
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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by KriVa »

While that's certainly true, the oceanic currents in that region certainly allow for a floating piece to have come from "around the search region", only to be washed up at the island.
I'm only a layman, if that, on the topic of oceanic currents, but the few images explaining them, seem to confirm the theory.
Another image, making the rounds on social media, also links the found part suspiciously close to a 777 AMM (Aircraft Maintenance Manual) or SRM (Structural Repair Manual).
https://twitter.com/thmsvndrmrn/status/ ... 5468419072
Thomas

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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by regi »

the break through or as i predicted: just now and then some details time after time, just to give the impression that they do their best. But they do actually nothing - because those who are involved know what happened.

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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by Inquirer »

sn26567 wrote:Looking at a map of the Indian Ocean, La Réunion Island is very, very far from where search teams have been looking for MH370. I read also that some crashes were much closer to this island: a 747 and a 767, among others.
After the Xmas tsunami in Indonesia from a couple of years ago, lots of rubble came ashore in Eastern Africa too, many many months later, so it would not be unheard of, I think?

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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by Treeper »

Inquirer wrote:
sn26567 wrote:Looking at a map of the Indian Ocean, La Réunion Island is very, very far from where search teams have been looking for MH370. I read also that some crashes were much closer to this island: a 747 and a 767, among others.
After the Xmas tsunami in Indonesia from a couple of years ago, lots of rubble came ashore in Eastern Africa too, many many months later, so it would not be unheard of, I think?
I've made a little map on interesting locations in the Indian Ocean, concerning off course MH370:
map MH370.jpg
Just to give an idea of the scale, Perth is about 2.000-2.500km from the POI's; La Réunion as far as 4.500km.


Tsunami debris:
The debris from the Japan March 2011 Tsunami is still washing ashore in Hawaii and the West coast of Northern America, more than 4 years (!) after the event. Boats, fridges, buoys, parts of cars, even an entire dock have arrived from more than 4.500km :? away.

teach
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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by teach »

regi wrote:the break through or as i predicted: just now and then some details time after time, just to give the impression that they do their best. But they do actually nothing - because those who are involved know what happened.
Oh for crying out loud, now we even have the tin foil hat brigade right here on luchtzak?

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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by sn26567 »

The Aviation Herald has picked up the story and its latest developments and comments as follows:

A part, obviously an aircraft part two meters long, was discovered washed ashore on the Island of Reunion (Reunion) on Jul 29th 2015. This discovery stirred intense debate throughout the planet about whether this could be a part of MH-370, a Boeing 777-200 or not, in particular whether the part could be a inboard Flaperon of a Boeing 777-200. There are conflicting views stating the similarities with the mechanical drawings of the flaperon are striking, others mention the reported dimensions and proportions of the part don't match. Other views are this could be part of a tail plane.

The location at Reunion would not be unexpected, according to drift models and the travel of buoys over the last 16 months, for a part of MH-370.


http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b/049&opt=0

Anyway, the part will now be sent to the French BEA (Reunion is part of France) for analysis.

The number on the debris seems to correspond with the 777 manual

Image
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regi
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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by regi »

teach wrote:
regi wrote:the break through or as i predicted: just now and then some details time after time, just to give the impression that they do their best. But they do actually nothing - because those who are involved know what happened.
Oh for crying out loud, now we even have the tin foil hat brigade right here on luchtzak?
Not now. I sent my distrust with this case from the beginning on Luchtzak.

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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by Passenger »

It seems that we won't get an official confirmation within the next days: the part leaves for Toulouse on Friday morning, and will be transported to a military base on Saturday. Investigation there starts next week.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2015/ ... emaine.php

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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

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Martin Dolan, the chief commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, told CNN on Friday that he is "increasingly confident, but not yet certain" that debris found on the French island of Reunion this week is from MH370.
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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by Treeper »

sn26567 wrote:Martin Dolan, the chief commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, told CNN on Friday that he is "increasingly confident, but not yet certain" that debris found on the French island of Reunion this week is from MH370.
Wasn't he the one who believed the plane would've been found by the end of May?

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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by Passenger »

Debris can travel a lot on that ocean:

http://www.traveller.com.au/missing-wa- ... rney-hv7me

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Re: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

Post by sn26567 »

The supposed MH370 flaperon found on La Réunion island just left La Réunion on board flight AF671 to Paris Orly. Another Boeing 777...

Boeing will be dispatching a team to Toulouse, where the debris will be examined (a Boeing piece examined on Airbus ground? In fact the flaperon was made by CASA, an Airbus affiliate). Also Malaysia and Australia will send representatives to follow the investigation.
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