Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

YouTube · Post by **quixoticguide** » 15 Mar 2014, 07:27

Bangladesh navy starts the search for MH370 with 2 Do228 An two ships.

Stij · Post by **Stij** » 15 Mar 2014, 07:28

And what if this was suicide of the pilot and him trying to cover it up for insurance fraud by making thenplane unfindable?

Cheers,

Stijn

Bralo20 · Post by **Bralo20** » 15 Mar 2014, 07:38

The presser with the PM of Malaysia has ended about 10 minutes ago, a quick summary:

- Confirmed deliberate action
- Primary radar data has been consistent with the satellite data
- Last confirmed "communication" with the plane was at 08:11 AM or 7 hours after the transponder/ACARS were shut down
- Based on new data they have 2 corridors to search: From Indonesia to the South Indian Sea (Australia) and from the border of Kazahkstan/Turkmenistan to the North of Thailand
- They won't confirm nor deny an hijacking yet he stated that all actions taken with the plane were deliberate
- Transponder and ACARS were shut down after the last contact with ATC, first ACARS then the transponder

RTM · Post by **RTM** » 15 Mar 2014, 07:50

Bralo20 wrote: Last confirmed "communication" with the plane was at 08:11 AM or 7 hours after the transponder/ACARS were shut down

That is more consistent with it running out of fuel. Still a little early, but who knows, they may have gone for a higher power setting. Definately possible though.

I also think that should the plane have landed somewhere, this would be visible in the engine parameters that were communicated by the plane.

Bralo20 · Post by **Bralo20** » 15 Mar 2014, 07:52

RTM wrote:
Bralo20 wrote: I also think that should the plane have landed somewhere, this would be visible in the engine parameters that were communicated by the plane.

Not exactly, the RR EHM system for the engine uses ACARS and during the press conference it was confirmed that ACARS was shut down.

RTM · Post by **RTM** » 15 Mar 2014, 07:56

But it were the engines that communicated all this time, or did I read that wrong? If so, what were the communications up to 08:11 AM?

Bralo20 · Post by **Bralo20** » 15 Mar 2014, 08:08

RTM wrote:But it were the engines that communicated all this time, or did I read that wrong? If so, what were the communications up to 08:11 AM?

No, the engines only send 2 packages of data, one during take-off and one during the climb to cruising altitude.

The last known verified communication is a "ping" from the Immarsat network. While all communications were shut down the satellite network kept pinging the plane and the plane kept responding (basically saying "yes, i'm here" to the satellites) until 08h11 AM when the last ping was received.

To determine where the plane was during those pings is hard since it's not a true data stream and thus contains zero information. They have to manually calculate which satellite picked up the signal, where the satellite was in space, etc... before they can get a decent location, based on the early analysing of those pings they guesstimate that was somewhere between Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and Thailand or between Indonesia and Australia. Based on the radar information that was given earlier I'm guessing they know that it was in the first corridor rather then the second one (radar data was showing a track towards that area).

RTM · Post by **RTM** » 15 Mar 2014, 08:16

Ok, thanks for the clarification. Must have missed a bit somewhere...
Was more or less continuing on Flankers hypothesis... Should have known better...

Bralo20 · Post by **Bralo20** » 15 Mar 2014, 09:29

Complete press conference: http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/257165

Acid-drop · Post by **Acid-drop** » 15 Mar 2014, 09:59

So it took them one whole week to admit basic facts.
Wonderful.

Lenoest · Post by **Lenoest** » 15 Mar 2014, 10:29

I guess (and hope) that they still know way more than what they say. If piracy is involved, the communication strategy is different than for an accident.

Post by **sn26567** » 15 Mar 2014, 18:23

Last known position of MH370 based on satellite data according to Malaysian authorities:

jasonSeattle · Post by **jasonSeattle** » 15 Mar 2014, 18:34

Was there a likely way for MH370 to reach a point on the northernmost of two arcs at 8:11 AM without creating a radar trace at a ground station somewhere in Asia?

Post by **sn26567** » 15 Mar 2014, 18:45

An expert would be needed to disable the systems enabling to locate the aircraft. Normally a pilot does not have access to these systems.

http://online.wsj.com/news/article_emai ... NDExNDQyWj

Therefore, the investigators are now focussing on the pilots and passengers.

RTM · Post by **RTM** » 15 Mar 2014, 19:05

Just a hypothasis...
But looking at that map, the plane could have intended to reach Iran... Putting the two with false passports back in a suspect condition...
It would mean crossing Chinese airspace and they might have downed it...

I don't think this is what happened, my money is on it being in the ocean somewhere, but could it be possible?

Flanker2 · Post by **Flanker2** » 15 Mar 2014, 19:21

I plotted the satellite range and the possible range at 4 hours from the last primary radar contact and 5 hours into the flight, which coincides with the last ping.

It looks more and more likely that the aircraft headed into rural China/Kazakhstan/Mongolia.

Flanker2 · Post by **Flanker2** » 15 Mar 2014, 19:29

I added possible range from last satellite ping.

RTM · Post by **RTM** » 15 Mar 2014, 19:36

Nice plot, but coud then also be west of Australia...

Flanker2 · Post by **Flanker2** » 15 Mar 2014, 19:50

I think that the pirate must have been inside the cockpit from the early stages of flight, maybe even before doors closed. Otherwise, he would't have been able to fly the route as precisely as he did and be so sure that he could take-over the aircraft before its first turn west-bound. If the take-over was delayed and the aircraft had 7 hours of flight ahead of itself, it would have become difficult to reach its intended destination.

This means that the pirate can have intruded the cockpit as operational staff/pretending to be operational staff, as an enthusiast who asked to jumpeat, or that one of the pilots is involved in the plot.

Flanker2 · Post by **Flanker2** » 15 Mar 2014, 20:11

Reports are saying that the last ping was at 6h40 minutes from disappearance from primary radar.

This gives the following map:

This indeed puts the aircraft around Kazakhstan/Khyrgizstan, 7h10 minutes into the flight, probably not far from its landing zone as fuel would have been around 7 hour 30 minutes total.

Pilot suicide for insurance premium can be ruled out.
You don't make such a precise navigation just to kill yourself, plus switching off the transponder while flying high enough knowing that primary radar would detect you would be a bad move if that was your intention. It doesn't make any sense no matter how you look at it.

Primary radar recording data over China and Bangladesh will probably show the aircraft crossing their territory.

Aviation24.be

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

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