Air Key West wrote:Assuming b.air will fly to NYC, if they fly to JFK they limit the number of pax practically to NYC BRU AFI.
If they flew out of EWR, they could alos benefit from connecting pax from other US cities, for instance ORD EWR BRU AFI or IAH EWR BRU AFI or DEN EWR BRU AFi to give just a few examples. I am very much aware tthat the purpose of the US flight(s) is to fly pax to/from AFI, not to fly pax from BRU to the US via NYC, but in order to fill the plane(s) they will need every pax they can get, as the market is very competitive and pax flying JFK BRU AFI will not be enough to fill an A332.
Just because an A332 joins the fleet at the time of them opening their first US route, doesn't automatically mean it is going to be that particular plane which is going to be sent over....
As to the origin of their loads as well as the total volume expected, consider this:
SN currently has 5 daily flights to AFI on A333 on most days of the week, while it is said almost 20% of our pax originate somewhere in North America: theoretically, 5 times 1/5th is a full load (on condition loadfactor on AFI is 100%, which it obviously isn't), but it's a good measure just to give you an idea of the total theoretical volume of transatlantic connecting pax SN can rely on even today and which is pretty much out of grab for any of the current transatlantic operators at BRU!
Of course, not all of our transatlantic pax come from the New York area neither, but it is by far out biggest single market in the US, so you can assume that as from the first day at least half the plane is going to be filled with connecting pax from New York and that is without taking into account another A330 on AFI or the fact SN will more easily manage to sell its AFI destinations in New York once it has its own flight there.
Ad some O&D to this and the last thing SN will want to do is to fill their plane with pax connecting on UA/CO: they will rather want to sell those remaining seats to their own connecting pax from allover the EU, but don't expect them to advertise the flight for very cheap, for very long abroad: at least not if the route is doing as expected.
As such, it really doesn't matter much where the flight ends in New York and whereas I agree with you EWR is more convenient if you want to go to Manhattan itself, JFK is still the prime gateway to New York for most ordinary people living there, as most people -especially Afro-Americans- don't normally live in wealthy and posh Manhattan...