Brussels Airlines' loadfactor

[LJ]

On the other hand, brussels airlines passengers growth is above the AEA members average in July...

???? The average growth of AEA members is 4.6 and SN grew 2.6%. The only area where SN grew more than the average of AEA members is cargo, but that's probably due to the addition of a A330

maybe the LF declined because they added a A330?

That would mean that the loadfactor of the new flights weren't high in July. ASK (available seat kms) did increase by 8.1% (which is probably the extra A330). With RPKs just increasing 5.7% this could maybe imply a not so high loadfactor on the new flights in the beginning. However isn't July peak season for Africa?

[RoMax]

AEA numbers for August:

Passengers (000): 440,8 +6.7% (AEA average: +4.2%)
Loadfactor: 71,1% -0.9% (AEA average: 82.5% +0.6%)
Freigth (000): 8453 +36.4% (AEA average: +7.7%)
ASK: +11.3% (AEA average: +1.6%)
RPK: +10.0% (AEA average: +2.2%)

[brusselsairlinesfan]

Pretty nice figures!!!

[RoMax]

AEA numbers for September:

Passengers (000): 471.7 +5.0% (AEA average: +6.7%)
Loadfactor: 65.6% +0.9% (AEA average: 81% +2.0%)
Freight: 10039 +31% (AEA average: +8.6%)

(Remember the Belgocontrol strike at the end of September)

January- August numbers (January- September numbers not yet on AEA website):

Passengers (000): 3 175.3 +2.0% (AEA average: +1.1%)
Loadfactor: 63.5% +0.3% (AEA average: 77.9% +2.6%)
Freight (mill): 67.6 +16.8% (AEA average: +9.5%)

[DeltaWiskey]

Good to see numbers rise like average.

I was just wondering, if they can manage profit/break-even at 65% LF, what could the profit be if they get LF at 75%?

[RoMax]

Good to see numbers rise like average.

I was just wondering, if they can manage profit/break-even at 65% LF, what could the profit be if they get LF at 75%?

The main raison for the fact that they are floating between loss and profit (so either rather small profits or small losses), is their extensive Africa network. They are making a lot of profit on these flights, both for the pax side (altough yields decreased because of increasing competition) and the freight side. Freight is extremely important of these AFI flights and are often making more profit than the pax services.
But the European network is still losing money.

[DeltaWiskey]

Yes I know that, nevertheless I still wonder how much profit they could make if their European loads are 15% higher. This must be quiet extensive anyhow imo.

[dsa330]

Good to see numbers rise like average.

I was just wondering, if they can manage profit/break-even at 65% LF, what could the profit be if they get LF at 75%?

i don't think break even is far away anymore.
Also note that DJG (BAe 146) got sold.

[RoMax]

AEA October 2010 numbers:

Passengers (000): 481.4 +10.5% (AEA average: +7.8%
Loadfactor: 63.7% +1.6% (AEA average: 80.1% +0.8%)
Freight (000): 8.6 + 12.8% (AEA average: +9.2%)

AEA January- October 2010 numbers:

Passengers (000): 4 128.3 +3.3% (AEA average: +2.4%)
Loadfactor: 63.8% +0.5% (AEA average: 78.4% +2.4%)
Freight (000): 85.8 +17.3% (AEA average: +9.3%)

All AEA numbers of the past years are also mentionned in the downloadable excel file of AEA. So I decided to look at SN numbers of 2008 and 2007:

October 2008: Pax (000): 429.5 -14.2%
LF: 59.5% -8.2%

October 2007: Pax (000): 500.3
LF: 67.7%

Since August 2010, SN is transporting more pax again than the same period in 2008. But SN is still transporting less pax than in their record year 2007, but the difference is getting smaller and smaller.

[DeltaWiskey]

Good to see numbers consistently above AEA average...

Next year is going to be exciting for SN:
-transporting more pax than ever?
-RJ-replacement order?
-full LH takeover?
-2 more A330?
-...

[tolipanebas]

From what I've heard, the STAR alliance membership is really bearing more fruits for SN than expected and they are said to be getting business from partners which they didn't even count upon first.

I think that the fact they operate to LHR does help in linking with the more exotic STAR partners and getting some of their business and this is what we see reflected here, next to the effects of a modest global economic recovery of course.

[LJ]

Good to see numbers consistently above AEA average...
-...

However, most growth comes from adding more capacity (relatively) than the other AEA members. If you look at loadfactors, than you see that SNs is only just above average (and this average is impacted by the very bad performance of some airlines like Air Ukraine, Malev and BMI). However even here the performance is not bad (they rank about 14/15 out of 30 in terms of loadfactor growth).

Next year is going to be exciting for SN:
-transporting more pax than ever?
-RJ-replacement order?
-full LH takeover?
-2 more A330?

You're forgetting the new A319s and A320 which will help SN numbers.

BTW note that these AEA numbers are scheduled traffic only. Real pax numbers are thus higher than reported by AEA (though I doubt SN did many charters in October).

[Boeing767copilot]

Brussels Airlines transported in 2010 4, 89 million passengers, an increase of 4,4 per cent over the year 2009. LF: 63,1 per cent (+0,4pp)

[sn26567]

Brussels Airlines transported in 2010 4, 89 million passengers, an increase of 4,4 per cent over the year 2009. LF: 63,1 per cent (+0,4pp)

See SN press release: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=43900

[DannyVDB]

Yes indeed,

SN seems also to have released more detailed information through the AEA.

In the traffic sheet you can find detailed figures for November and December as well.

November: pax 390.900 (+10.1), LF 58.1 (+0.0)
December: pax 370.300 (+13.0), LF 60.9 (-0.2)

So LF more or less stable despite fact they added a lot of capacity ...

Overall for 2010 they end up with +211.100 pax

Taking into account the ashcloud not so bad, curious what will bring this year 2011.

Danny

[Boeing767copilot]

january 2011
pax: 347.891 pax. (+11,3%)
LF:54,2% (-0,2%)

[tolipanebas]

The increase in pax numbers at SN is continuing through May (+18,2% YTD) and has been picked up by RTBF.

http://www.rtbf.be/info/economie/detail_brussels-airlines-hausse-de-18-2-du-nombre-de-voyageurs-en-mai?id=6366693

[RoMax]

The increase in pax numbers at SN is continuing through May (+18,2% YTD) and has been picked up by RTBF.

http://www.rtbf.be/info/economie/detail_brussels-airlines-hausse-de-18-2-du-nombre-de-voyageurs-en-mai?id=6366693

And for the press release in English:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=45188

[Boeing767copilot]

But still a bad loadfactor: 60%

[Polaris]

But still a bad loadfactor: 60%

Loadfactor was 65%... Goal is to get out of the low sixties this season. With the increase in capacity I think thay are doing a good job!