AN225 UR82060 to visit Hahn in January

[A225HVY]

He's out and about

All times UTC

11JAN10 ADB321F 0930 GML HHN 1200
12JAN10 ADB3721 1945 HHN KBL 0300/13

[tsv]

I can't believe Antonov risk sending such a rare and expensive plane, basically the flagship of their company, to Kabul.
Security in Afghanistan is extremely dodgy at the best of times and if the wrong person with the right weapon gets anywhere near the airport that thing is a sitting duck. Who could possibly miss it?

Thumbs down to Antonov for letting greed get in the way of good risk management.

[Nevihta]

Thumbs down to Antonov for letting greed get in the way of good risk management.

I'm not sure we know enough about Antonov's business plan to say anything like that.

[regi]

TSV: you are right that it is possible to hit the An225. But the insurgents should be in striking distance of the airport. That is their main problem. Compared to Soviet occupation times, the hills around Kabul airport are now also under full control.
The insurgents have Strela's, no Stingers or anything heavier. The Taliban have been able to bring down 1 Apache helicopter , but no fixed wing airplane with a Strela. ( other helicopters have been brought down by machine gun fire , rpg's and one shot heavy caliber sniper riffles )
The question is also what damage 1 Strela would do on a 6 engine aircraft. ( but I would not want to test it )
Terrorists failed to bring down a Israeli B-757 at Mombassa with Strela's.
The occupation forces are most worried about a Tamil Tiger Style suicide attack as happened on 24th July 2001, in which many aircraft got destroyed. They must be thinking about it, see article below.
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/100462.html
Reason that they failed up to this day is that the airport perimeter is well protected by occupation forces, such as we Belgians.
The easiest and cheapest solution would be to bring in a mortar squad in striking distance. But again, they have tried that and failed - several times.
So I think we may conclude that the risk of losing the An225 because of enemy fire is very low. But...

[tsv]

Nevitha: You're right, I don't know a thing about Antonov's business plan. But surely they must realise that certain folk would see the destruction of their beautiful aircraft (being the biggest in the world) as a major coup. And some these folk live in Afghanistan. And if God forbid they succeeded would Antonov's insurance be sufficient to replace an aircraft as unique and expensive as the AN-225? Hard to imagine it would.

Regi - I don't doubt the hills around Kabul airport are extremely well guarded. The problem is that the Taliban has had some success infiltrating the Afghan army (see http://in.news.yahoo.com/139/20091231/8 ... ghani.html). Then there was the Fort Hood incident and going back to the start of the second gulf war there was this; http://resources.bnet.com/topic/attack+ ... ldier.html. So the arms the Taliban potentially have access to is anything used by the government army.

There are also recent precedents for large aircraft being successfully targeted during take offs;
http://coppermine.luchtzak.be/thumbnails-36.html and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Mogad ... l-76_crash.

So it won't surprise me if the Taliban manage to take out more aircraft before the war finishes. Just hope Mriya won't be a casualty.

[regi]

Yep TSV, all quite worrying. They do work on the edge. But apparently the Antonov people seem to be confident in the fact that the protection of Kabul is different than Mogadishu and the single incident at Bagdad.
The occupation forces realised this well before the intervention and have taken all possible precautions. You might remember that weeks after the fall of Kabul, the airport was still unsafe. Now and than they found single left behind Taliban fighters, dug in with rations and supplies to attack weeks or even months after the airport would be active again. But it didn't work, they were all taken out, literally. ( the Taliban took a long time to realise the existance of night vision devices, high altitude spotting, electronic guarding etcetera )
But again, you are all right that if the insurgents really want to bring down a big bird, they will succeed eventually. Be assured that the insurgents know very well that proving that the airbridge is not more 100% safe, it would be a major mental blow for the occupation forces.

What Bagdad concerns: there is a theory that says that the insurgents attack only land transports , to make the occupation forces believe that the airbridge is 100% safe. Reason being is that air transport is so costly compared with sea+land transport from Kuwait.
With the attacks on the NATO convoys through Pakistan, it seems that this strategy is now also applied to Afghanistan.
As I have stated before: the day that the insurgents prove they can shoot down constantly, everywhere , anytime the aircrafts of the occupation forces, it is all over. See the Soviet experiences with the Stingers.
And as I have posted before , the US bribed a Iraqi general heavely to assemble all Roland missiles at 1 spot to hand them over to the US. The war of attrition in Iraq would have looked much different if those 800 Roland systems would have fallen in the hands of the insurgents.

[ups 747]

anyone took some pictures of the visit

[diddi]

Flight was canceled, so we`ll never find out if the beast would have survived the visit to KBL

[regi]

diddi, maybe it was canceled because of security reasons

[Acid-drop]

diddi, maybe it was canceled because of security reasons

Probably because some belgians discovered the flight schedule and discuss on a forum.

[A225HVY]

Cancelled due cargo not ready...............................no security implications with operating into warzones with Antonov aircraft. Every flight is evaluated by the company on the basis of a threat being in position.

All ISAF airfields in Afghanistan are regular destination for these aircraft.

[diddi]

You are obviously referring to AN124 aircraft, but there`s only one AN225 as you most probably know!

[regi]

would the cargo involve parts for the renovation of the hydropower at that dam,where the suply line is too long?

[A225HVY]

You are obviously referring to AN124 aircraft, but there`s only one AN225 as you most probably know!

NO!! No I refer to all Antonov aircraft, AN225 is not excempt from working in these areas just because he is sole example. It would not be commercially viable to only use him for non risk charters.

A225HVY

[regi]

Ok Ok capicci

[cnc]

didn't they plan a few years ago to fly with a second an225 by 2010?

[regi]

Russian aviation plans strike quite regularly with the reality of " money no have "